Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | March 12, 2022

Race 9 at Oaklawn Park | Saturday March 12 | Post Time 6:10 PM Eastern

Azeri Stakes | Purse $350,000 | One Mile and One Sixteenth | Fillies & Mares, Four Years Old and Upward

Analysis: The early pace in this race should be faster than average, because Ava’s Grace (4) is stretching out to two-turns off a sprint following nearly eight months off and was close to the lead in that last race, as well as led on very fast fractions including a half-mile in under 47 seconds the only other time she ran in a route. Super Quick (9) will have to go fast from the gate to gain position and not lose ground going into the first time, as she has led from start to finish in her last three races, all routes. Additionally, she’s coming back from four months off so will be very “fresh” and full of energy.

Top contenders: Close at hand could be a number of fillies and mares, but I’m hoping Lady Mystify (6) gets the perfect trip in third, just as she did last summer in the Remington Park Oaks when sitting third early before drawing off easily to win by three lengths. She beat Pauline’s Pearl (2), who has since won the Zia Park Oaks and the Houston Ladies Classic, a race in which Lady Mystify led from the start then settled for second. Considering Pauline’s Pearl came back from a layoff after the Zia Park Oaks to win the Ladies Classic, Lady Mystify can make the same winning return to the races in this situation.

There are no real knocks against likely favorites Ce Ce (5) and Shedaresthedevil (7), but neither are standouts either. Ce Ce returned to the races last month to finish second in the Santa Monica Stakes at seven furlongs and can run well here. However, she’s better around one turn, having won the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint before the layoff and having finished fourth, third and third in her last three two-turn races. Shedaresthedevil was sixth in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff when last seen four months ago, after pressing a sizzling early pace then tiring. She won this race last year off a five month layoff so doing the same off a four month layoff this year isn’t out of the question. However, she is likely to be the prohibitive betting favorite. Additionally, Shedaresthedevil usually is no further back than third in the early stages, sometimes second or first, and if she cannot relax behind Ava’s Grace and Super Quick, Shedaresthedevil could be passed late by Pauline’s Pearl and by Lady Mystify, who will go to post at higher odds.

Win bets:

Lady Mystify (6) can be bet to win at odds of 5 to 2 or higher.

Pauline’s Pearl (2) can be bet to win at odds of 5 to 2 or higher as well.

I would bet the one at the highest odds near post time to win, unless Lady Mystify happens to be around five to one or more and Pauline’s Pearl 3 to 1 or more, in which case I might consider betting both to win.

Exactas:

Pauline’s Pearl (2) and Lady Mystify (6) over Pauline’s Pearl (2), Ce Ce (5), Lady Mystify (6) and Shedaresthedevil (7)