Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | March 13, 2021

Race 7 at Santa Anita | Saturday March 13 | Post Time 6:46 PM Eastern

San Simeon Stakes – Grade 3 | Purse $100,000 | Six Furlongs on Turf | Four Year Olds and Upward

After almost getting top pick Count Again up at 16/1 in last week’s race, the Frank E. Kilroe Mile, we will be using another live longshot in this race in Shashashakemeup (6) in addition to two logical win contenders in Cistron (5) and Jolie Olimpica (7), the latter completely unlikely to go to post anywhere near her 3 to 1 starting odds.

I’ll start with Cistron (5), who would be a great bet anywhere near his 7 to 2 starting odds. Looking at his turf form, we can draw a line through his most recent effort last May for two reasons. The first is I nearly always draw a line through a race which led to a lengthy layoff since whatever occurred in the race is fairly irrelevant, as long as the horse is back at the same level (he is) and is working well (he is). The second reason is he was in position to win with a sixteenth of a mile to go when third and a length behind the leaders but was forced to steady and lost all change. Previous to that, Cistron won the 2020 San Simeon at 4 to 1 odds gamely by a head after stalking in third. That win came following eight months off so this layoff is of no concern and the 115 Equibase figure earned in last year’s win is one of the top figures in the field. Top jockey Umberto Rispoli, who is serving a suspension, is allowed to ride in graded races and that gives him a lot of incentive as he is only riding this race and the Beholder Mile Stakes today. Cistron has one more edge because even though he won last year’s San Simeon from just off the pace, he won the Grade 2 Kona Gold Stakes earlier in his career leading from start to finish so if no horse wants the lead early, Rispoli can put Cistron on the front end and play “come catch me.”

As mentioned previously, Shashashakemeup (6) is a live longshot like Count Again was last week when flying down the stretch to just miss at 16/1. Claimed by Peter Miller last October for 50K at Churchill Downs the first time ever he was in a claiming level race, Shashashakemeup finished second in a highly rated allowance race won a horse who came back to win again, then he finished second in the Grade 3 Palos Verdes Stakes in January. Those two efforts earned career-best Equibase figures, first 104 then 110, and this four year old has more improving to do so could run much better than his 12/1 starting odds suggest he will.

Jolie Olimpica (7) is not a false favorite by any means, but that doesn’t mean she’s a good win bet at likely low odds. She beat males in two of three wins in her native Brazil including a Group 1 stakes in a field of 14, and she has a record of two wins and three runner-up finishes in the U.S., all against females. One of those wins came in the Grade 2 Monrovia Stakes at five and one-half furlongs at Santa Anita, with a career-best 117 figure, and I have no doubt she can run as well at six furlongs.

After those three main win contenders, it is hard to completely ignore a trio of horse for exotic wagers and those are Bob and Jackie (3), who has finished second or third in his last three races, Gregorian Chant (2), who is a bit slower than these in terms of speed figures but who will be finishing well, and Sombeyay (4), who cuts back to a sprint and may start to return to the form shown last spring winning and finishing second in a pair of stakes at a mile at Gulfstream Park.

Betting Strategies –

Win bet on Cistron (5) at 2 to 1 or more.

Win bet on Shashashakemeup (6) at 7 to 2 or higher.

Instead of a place bet on Shashashakemeup, we can play a small exacta which will likely pay more than a place bet: Gregorian Chant (2), Bob and Jackie (3), Sombeyay (4), Cistron (5) and Jolie Olimpica (7) over Shashashakemeup (6).

Trifecta:

I prefer the trifecta in this eight horse field over the exacta, as follows:

Cistron (5), Shashashakemeup (6) and Jolie Olimpica (7) over Cistron (5), Shashashakemeup (6) and Jolie Olimpica (7) over Gregorian Chant (2), Bob and Jackie (3), Sombeyay (4), Cistron (5), Shashashakemeup (6) and Jolie Olimpica (7