Keeneland Select Pick of The Day | March 19, 2022

Race 9 at Oaklawn Park | Saturday March 19 | Post Time 6:10 PM Eastern

Essex Handicap | Purse $500,000 | One Mile and One Sixteenth | Four Years Old and Upward

Win contenders: As good as most of these are, I think Warrior’s Charge (3), Plainsman (4) or Hanalei’s Houdini (8) have the bulk of the probability to win. Given Hanalei’s Houdini starts at 10/1 odds compared to 7/2 for Warrior’s Charge and 2/1 for Plainsman, it is obvious the best way to make a serious profit in this race is by betting Hanalei’s Houdini to win and playing exactas and trifectas using him with the two other logical contenders. More on those wagers after the reasoning behind the selections below.

Hanalei’s Houdini (8) has the talent to win this race because he ran faster than any other horse in this field in his most recent start. In that race, the Jennings Stakes on January 29, Hanalei’s Houdini earned a 114 Equibase Speed Figure when beaten a neck. That was better than the 105 figure Plainsman earned winning the similar Razorback Handicap and better than the 110 figure Warrior’s Charge earned in his near 10 length win over the track at the end of January. As importantly, Hanalei’s Houdini undoubtedly would have won the race if he had not stumbled badly at the start. In spite of nearly falling at the start, Hanalei’s Houdini recovered though last of six and eight lengths back after a quarter mile had been run, then rallied determinedly to miss by a neck on the wire to multiple stakes winner Cordmaker. The Jennings has turned out to be a “Key Race” as Cordmaker returned to win the General George Stakes, a grade 3 race just like the Essex. Better still, Jennings third place finisher Galerio returned to win the John C. Campbell Stakes. Considering Hanalei’s Houdini was a neck behind Cordmaker and nearly two lengths in front of Galerio, with both winning their next starts, and considering Hanalei’s Houdini ran faster than any other horse in this field in his last start, he has a big shot to win this race.

Warrior’s Charge (3) had won three of nine races at Oaklawn prior to his win on January 28, and with that near 10 length win he has now earned four of six career wins over the track he obviously loves. Rallying from second and five lengths back in the early stages, Warrior’s Charge easily moved to lead in the stretch and was “ridden out” to victory so could have run even better than evidenced by the 110 figure, which is the second best last race figure in the field and better than Plainsman earned winning the Razorback. Warrior’s Charge was then entered to run on February 19 but trainer Brad Cox (who also saddles Plainsman) scratched him out of that race to run here, which is a big sign last year’s Eclipse Award winning trainer knows the horse has what it takes to win the Essex.

Plainsman (4) earned a 105 figure winning the Razorback and the same figure last fall winning the Ack Ack Stakes. Joel Rosario was aboard for both wins and rides back in the Essex Plainsman won back-to-back stakes races last June and July so obviously can hold his top form. The best of those two wins came in the Michael G. Schaefer Memorial Stakes, with a 110 figure, which if repeated, puts this hard knocking horse right there with the best of this group at the finish.

Win bets:

Hanalei’s Houdini (8) should be bet to win at odds of 3 to 1 or higher.

Exactas:

Box Hanalei’s Houdini (8) and Warrior’s Charge (3)

Box Hanalei’s Houdini (8) and Plainsman (4)

Trifectas:

Note: These are similar to the exacta but we will be using most of the others in third as there could be some nice value and as we are not playing the two favorites to finish first and second.

Hanalei’s Houdini (8) and Warrior’s Charge (3) over Hanalei’s Houdini (8) and Warrior’s Charge (3) over ALL. (At the $0.50 min the cost of this wager is just $6)

Hanalei’s Houdini (8) and Plainsman (4) over Hanalei’s Houdini (8) and Plainsman (4) over ALL.  

(At the $0.50 min the cost of this wager is just $6)