Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | March 20, 2021

Race 12 at Fair Grounds | Saturday March 20 | Post Time 5:43 PM Eastern

Muniz Memorial Classic Stakes – Grade 2 | Purse $300,000 | One Mile and One Eighth on Turf | Four Year Olds and Upward

With a full field of 12 entered, this year’s Muniz Memorial Classic Stakes is a fantastically good betting race. Last year’s winner Factor This (1) is back and gets the rail to go along with his “need the lead” style but has lost three in a row, badly, most recently at the distance over the track, and I think he’s beatable.

My top pick is another logical horse, but one still likely to go to post at decent odds - Captivating Moon (3), who just posted the 43 to 1 upset last month in the Fair Grounds Stakes, the same race Factor This finished fifth in. Captivating Moon had been off form for some time before the win, with his last win coming 14 months earlier in the Buddy Diliberto Memorial Stakes (moved off turf) at Fair Grounds. Still, Captivating Moon had finished second, beaten a head, in the Opening Verse Stakes last summer and in his career had banked over half a million dollars prior to last month’s win. Historically, the top finishers in the Fair Grounds Stakes have done very well in this race which is nearly identical except being one grade level higher, and I see no reason why Captivating Moon can’t run his second “A” race in a row to win.

Olympic Runner (11) is the other horse with the bulk of the probability to win in my opinion. He comes out of a near career-best effort in the Canadian Turf Stakes three weeks ago at Gulfstream Park. In that race Olympic Runner was fifth with an eighth of a mile to go but put in a furious rally to lead with yards to go only to be beaten a neck on the wire. He’s a hard-knocking horse with 10 first or second place finishes in 18 races and although he’s never run this far, he should successfully get the trip and be passing most if not all of these in the stretch.

There are a bunch of horses which can contend and be part of the exacta and trifecta. This group includes the second and third finishers in the Fair Grounds Stakes – Logical Myth (6) and Peace Achieved (10). Another contender is Colonel Liam (5), winner of the Pegasus World Cup Invitational near the end of January, a race in which Cross Border (4) finished third. However, the 99 Equibase figure Colonel Liam earned just isn’t up to snuff with the 108 figure Captivating Moon earned in his most recent race nor the 113 figure Olympic Runner earned in his last race. Then there’s the pair which come out of the John B. Connally Turf Cup at Sam Houston – winner Spooky Channel (8) and third place finisher Conviction Trade (9). They earned 113 and 112 figures which make them fit here, but at 12 furlongs, and at nine furlongs I don’t think they are as good as either Captivating Moon or Olympic Runner.

Betting Strategies –

Bet Captivating Moon (3) and Olympic Runner (11), either or both, at odds of 3 to 1 or more.

Exacta: Box Captivating Moon (3) and Olympic Runner (11)

Trifecta:

Captivating Moon (3) and Olympic Runner (11) over ALL over Captivating Moon (3) and Olympic Runner (11). (Between the exacta and trifecta we are covered if the two top contenders finish first and second, or first and third).

Additional Exacta:

Captivating Moon (3) and Olympic Runner (11) over Captivating Moon (3), Olympic Runner (11), Cross Border (4), Colonel Liam (5), Logical Myth (6), Spooky Channel (8), Conviction Trade (9) and Peace Achieved (10).