Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | March 26, 2022

Race 12 at Fair Grounds | Saturday March 26 | Post Time 6:44 PM Eastern

Louisiana Derby | Purse $1 Million | One Mile and Three-Sixteenths | Three Year Olds

Analysis and top 3 contenders to win:

Although Epicenter (6) possesses excellent early speed and may be the one to catch just as he was in the Risen Star Stakes five weeks ago, he could not hold off Call Me Midnight (3) four weeks earlier in the Lecomte Stakes over the track, and that is the scenario I foresee again in the Louisiana Derby. In the Lecomte, Epicenter established an easy lead on fairly brisk fractions but Call Me Midnight rallied from eighth of nine early and 12 lengths back, to get up by a head on the wire, earning a career-best 98 Equibase speed figure in the process. When Epicenter returned four weeks later to win the Risen Star Stakes, he once again led from start to finish, but just equaled the 97 figure earned in the Lecomte. In the Gun Runner Stakes on New Year’s Day, Epicenter also earned a 97 figure, so now has run just as fast but no faster in three straight races. That is not the optimal pattern for a three year old in the spring as we’d like to see improvement. However, given his potential “early pace” edge, Epicenter could run a career-best race in the Louisiana Derby.

On the other hand, Call Me Midnight, who was flattered when Lecomte runner-up Epicenter won the Risen Star, has been rested since near the end of January but shows every sign of being as fit as when last seen, having put in a half-mile workout at Fair Grounds seven days ago which was the second best of 110 on the day. As such, Call Me Midnight gets preference over Epicenter as the top contender to win this year’s Louisiana Derby and his 6 to 1 starting odds make him a great bet to win as well.

Then there’s Kupuna (5), who shares something in common with Call Me Midnight although they have never faced each other. Out of the Lecomte, not only did Epicenter return to win the Risen Star, but sixth place finisher Cyberknife returned to win impressively earlier on the same day as the Risen Star. Cyberknife earned a 100 figure winning that day, which was faster than Epicenter (97) later that day. Kupuna was second to Cyberknife in that race, earning a 95 figure which I think he can improve upon. Trainer Bred Calhoun won the 2019 Louisiana Derby with By My Standards at 22 to 1 odds and since this colt put in two brilliant five furlong drills over the track since that last race another potential upset is not out of the question and his eight to one starting odds are much better than 7 to 5 for Epicenter.

Honorable mention goes to Curly Tail (4). Although the colt just broke his maiden in his sixth career start, he leapfrogged to a 92 figure. That race on February 26 was his second following two months off and so an even better performance is possible. Trainer Dallas Stewart is another known for saddling horses for odds-beating efforts, most notably Out for a Spin in the 2019 Ashland Stakes at 50 to 1 odds, so I would not count Curly Tail (who opens at 30 to 1 odds) out when considering wagers involving this race.   

Win bets:

Call Me Midnight (3) should be bet to win at odds of 3 to 1 or higher.

Kupuna (5) should be bet to win at odds of 5 to 1 or higher.

A win/place bet for at least a token amount like $2 may be considered for Curly Tail (4) at odds of 10 to 1 or higher.

Exactas:

Box Call Me Midnight (3), Kupuna (5) and Epicenter (6)

Then for the minimum $1 Box on Call Me Midnight (3), Curly Tail (4), Kupuna (5) and Epicenter (6).