Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | March 27, 2021

Race 11 at Turfway Park | Saturday March 27 | Post Time 6:25 PM Eastern

Jeff Ruby Steaks – Grade 3 | Purse $250,000 | One Mile and One Eighth | Three Year Olds

With 100 “Road to the Derby” points going to the winner, which pretty much automatically gives said winner a starting spot in the gate for the Derby, this year’s Jeff Ruby Steaks takes on pretty significant standing among this weekend’s Derby prep races, which also include the Florida Derby and U.A.E. Derby (in Dubai). 12 horses entered, and it is my opinion that horses with top form on Turfway Park’s all-weather surface, or on turf, have a significant edge over those who have run exclusively on dirt or not as well on the other two surfaces.

With that handicapping philosophy in mind, the main contenders to win and to be part of the exacta and trifecta are Hush of a Storm (2), Hard Rye Guy (9), Gretzky the Great (10), Tarantino (7) and Like the King (1). Dyn O Myte (11) and Hockey Dad (12) check most, but not all the same boxes the first group does and can be considered for second and third on exacta and trifecta tickets.

Hush of a Storm (2) won the local prep for the Jeff Ruby, the John Battaglia Memorial, four weeks ago. Although he had a more trouble free trip in the late stages as compared to runner-up Like the King (1), third place finisher Gretzky the Great (10) and especially fourth place finisher Hard Rye Guy (9), Hush of a Storm was visually impressive with a sustained rally from eighth with three-quarters of a mile to go, before drawing off late. Since racing around two turns and at Turfway for the first time in December, Hush of a Storm has improved from an 85 Equibase Speed Figure, to 87, to 97, and looks to have more improving to do. Jockey Santiago Gonzalez was up for all three races, all wins, and rides back and the two post will enable Hush of  a Storm to save ground early before finding a path in the middle of the track to put in a strong late run once more.

Hard Rye Guy (9) arguably might have won the Battaglia is not completely stopped with about a sixteenth of a mile to run. Rallying from last of 11 early, Hard Rye Guy went inside for the stretch run and was fourth, just three-quarters of a length from the front when the two horses outside of him came in just enough to close any hole he could have otherwise gone through. Having had to stop his momentum, Hard Rye Guy came out a few paths and closed again but it was too late by that point. I must note I am concerned about Chris Landeros, who is trainer Ian Wilke’s son-in-law and the #1 jockey for the trainer on this circuit, getting off to ride Gretzky the Great. On the other hand, Brian Hernandez, Jr. and Wilkes have won over 30 races in the past couple of years together. All in all, I think Hard Rye Guy will be making a sustained run again and with a clean path in the stretch has a shot to do what Hush of a Storm did in the Battaglia and that is to pull off the upset win.

Gretzky the Great (10) was a horse I gladly took a stand against in the Battaglia, and I was right. He had won the Grade 1 Summer Stakes on turf last summer and was in contention in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf in November before ending up sixth of 14. Off those classy races he was bet down to even money in the Battaglia, but as a horse running two-turns on an all-weather surface off a nearly four month layoff, it was difficult to see him as fit enough to win. As it turns out that wasn’t his only issue, as he was taken on for the lead after a quarter mile had been run and that forced him to go faster than average (:47) through the first half-mile and three-quarters of a mile (1:11.2), so it was no surprise he tired late. Likely to be MUCH tighter second off the layoff, and with Landeros getting on, having a very strong record for trainer Casse (7 for 20 in all-weather routes this year), and with Casse having won with FIVE of his last EIGHT horses making their second starts off layoffs this year at Turfway Park, it is highly logical Gretzky the Great may be in contention from start to finish this time where he wasn’t just four weeks ago.

Tarantino (7) ran evenly, perhaps poorly, in both the Holy Bull (second pretty much from start to finish) and Fountain of Youth Stakes (second and third from the start then fading to fourth), but given his superb turf form prior to those dirt starts, he could return to top form on all-weather. His half-sister (same dam) won $300K on all-weather and won two of three on the surface going long, and this colt missed by a nose in the Zuma Beach Stakes on turf last fall in only the second start of his career before winning in December on the Gulfstream Park turf. He’s got a good stalking style and the fact he’s ducking Holy Bull and Fountain of Youth winner Greatest Honor might help him run back to his best efforts, which are good enough to contend here.

Like the King (1) was fourth in the early stages of the Battaglia and got within a head of the lead at the top of the stretch then fought gamely to the wire to hold second. This will be his second start after nearly three months off and he put in a very strong workout at Keeneland one week ago so he should improve. On the other hand, Bejarano gets off to ride Hockey Dad after riding Like the King in three straight including a win and that runner-up effort last month. Drayden Van Dyke takes over as he moves his tack completely from California to Kentucky, ably represented by Hall-of-Fame jockey Gary Stevens as his agent, and I wish them all the best. On the other hand, there are a lot of “early-presser” types in the race such as Hockey Dad, Dyn O Mite, Gretzky the Great and Sainthood so Like the King is not only going to have to get a good position early without expending too much energy from the rail, he’s going to have to find a path to run late in a full field without getting into traffic trouble.

Betting Strategies –

Bet Hush of a Storm (2) and Hard Rye Guy (9), either or both, to win at odds of 5 to 2 or more.

Exacta: (Two options)

Hush of a Storm (2) and Hard Rye Guy (9) over Hush of a Storm (2), Hard Rye Guy (9), Like the King (1), Tarantino (7), Gretzky the Great (10), Dyn O Mite (11) and Hockey Dad (12).

Box Hush of a Storm (2) and Hard Rye Guy (9), Like the King (1), Tarantino (7) and Gretzky the Great (10)