Race 13 at Gulfstream Park | Saturday, March 28 | Post Time 6 PM Eastern Time

Appleton Stakes – Grade 3 | Purse $100,000 | One Mile on Turf | Four Year Olds and Upward

English Bee (1) and March to the Arch (3) get co-top billing in this race and as both open at 8 to 1 odds I’ll weight them equally until I see their odds near post time. The favorite, a lukewarm one, is Sombeyay (10) at 7 to 2, based on his winning the identical Canadian Turf Stakes four weeks ago, beating English Bee by a half-length, with Louder Than Bombs (9) another neck back in third in a dead-heat with Hay Dakota. Sombeyay drew the five post for that race while English Bee drew the eight slot and today with English Bee getting the rail he can make up the half-length deficit from one month ago. Last summer and fall, English Bee won the Grade 3 Virginia Derby (a grade 3 stakes like this one) and the Parx Fall Derby, before a poor sixth place effort at the end of December to close out his three year old season. He ran BIG in the Canadian Turf four weeks ago off a two month layoff and in his first start as a four year old, earning the same 117 Equibase Figure as winner Sombeyay, which is the best last race figure in the field. Very likely to improve off that effort second off the layoff and with maturing to do as a newly turned four year old, English Bee has a big shot to add to his already strong career mark of 4 for 11 on turf to date.

March to the Arch (3) won the Grade 2 Wise Dan Stakes last June in his third start as a four year old then put in five losses through the rest of the year before going on a break. Returning off a three month layoff in January, March to the Arch won the Sunshine Millions Turf with a big late rally then nearly won the similar Grade 3 Tampa Bay Stakes on February 8. In that race, March to the Arch had to alter course significantly from the middle of the track to the inside and was beaten a nose and a head on the wire. Having earned a 115 figure for that effort, he could run even better in his third start of the year and has just as much probability to win as English Bee in my opinion, so also opening at 8 to 1 odds is a horse I have to bet if the odds stay around that range.

Louder Than Bombs (9) nearly posted the 50 to 1 upset in the Canadian Turf last month, beaten a half-length and a neck on the wire while finishing in a dead heat for third. Last of 12 in the early stages, Louder Than Bombs was closing fastest of all from 18 lengths back under Bravo, who rides back. The 116 figure he earned was a career best and better than the best figure many in this race have ever urn so if able to put in a similar effort today could help us make a nice profit in the exotics at least as  he opens at 15 to 1.

For exotics, in the second and third positions, we should consider the following: Ballagh Rocks (4), Maraud (5), Social Paranoia (7), Sombeyay (10), Mr Dumas (11) and First Premio (13). All six have talent but some knocks. Considering the top three contenders open at 8 to 1, 8 to 1 and 15 to 1, there’s a lot of reward for the risk potential in adding these horses to our exotic tickets.

Betting Strategies:

Win Bets: Bet BOTH English Bee (1) and March to the Arch (3) to win at odds of 5 to 2 or higher.

For a smaller amount, bet Louder Than Bombs (9) to win at odds of 5 to 1 or more.

Exactas:

English Bee (1), March to the Arch (3) and Louder Than Bombs (9) over English Bee (1), March to the Arch (3), Louder Than Bombs (9), Ballagh Rocks (4), Maraud (5), Social Paranoia (7), Sombeyay (10), Mr Dumas (11) and First Premio (13). At the $1 minimum level the cost of this bet is $24.

Trifecta: (Two tickets)

English Bee (1), March to the Arch (3) and Louder Than Bombs (9) over English Bee (1), March to the Arch (3), Louder Than Bombs (9), Ballagh Rocks (4), Maraud (5), Social Paranoia (7), Sombeyay (10), Mr Dumas (11) and First Premio (13) over English Bee (1), March to the Arch (3) and Louder Than Bombs (9).

At the $0.50 minimum the cost of this bet is $21.

English Bee (1), March to the Arch (3) and Louder Than Bombs (9) over English Bee (1), March to the Arch (3) and Louder Than Bombs (9) over English Bee (1), March to the Arch (3), Louder Than Bombs (9), Ballagh Rocks (4), Maraud (5), Social Paranoia (7), Sombeyay (10), Mr Dumas (11) and First Premio (13).

At the $0.50 minimum the cost of this bet is $21.

The two trifecta tickets, if played, should be played in conjunction with one-another and can be played instead of the exacta. The strategy is to have 1, 3 and 9 finish first or second, or first and third, with any of the other horses in the other position, to win the bet.