Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | March 5, 2022

Race 9 at Gulfstream Park | Saturday March 5 | Post Time 4:10 PM Eastern

Honey Fox Stakes | Purse $150,000 | One Mile on Turf | Fillies & Mares, Four Years Old and Upward

Top contenders:

Gift List (6) gets the slightest edge in this very deep field, as she’s one of four horses coming out of the Pegasus World Cup Filly & Mare Turf Invitational Stakes run five weeks ago (January 29) on the Gulfstream Park turf. The reason for the slight preference is Gift List is making her second start back following nearly seven months away from the races and is potentially likely to improve more than the others coming out that race. After a fine record of 2-3-0 in Europe as a two year old in 2020, Gift List imported to the U.S. last April and finished second in the Grade 2 Appalachian Stakes, next winning the Grade 2 Edgewood Stakes powerfully by four lengths just 27 days later. After a third place finish in the Grade 3 Wonder Again Stakes she was rested and since that last race put in a very strong half-mile workout signaling she’s ready to run back to her Edgewood win. Additionally, she is not a need-the-lead type by any means and in this race there are up to seven “early” pace types or pressers so she could be rolling past some tired horses late.

Alms (7) beat Gift List in the Pegasus when second, after leading from the start and for the first six furlongs. Although no match for winner Regal Glory, Alms was very game in holding off the third horse by a neck at the finish. She also does not need the lead to win as proven in her career debut win when rallying from fourth under Rosario, who rides today. Alms has something in common with Gift List although they have never faced each other, as she missed winning the 2020 Appalachian Stakes (the same race Gift List finished second in last year) by a nose and a head. Off from July of that year until this past October, Alms has finished second twice and may be sitting on her best effort yet as she can also be passing a lot of tired horses in the late stages.

Bipartisanship (5) has just a two-for-nine career mark, with all nine on turf. She will absolutely be a long shot based on that record but she should run better than her high odds suggest. After four races in Ireland, Bipartisanship imported to the U.S. to run last September and finished third before winning a turf route. After a poor seventh place finish she posted the 19 to 1 upset when Lopez rode her for the first time in late December, on this course, in the $100K Tropical Park Oaks. She broke slowly in the Pegasus and didn’t do much when finishing fifth of 10 but a repeat of her effort just before that in the Oaks would be good for a share and potentially a very nice profit if she goes off at double digit odds as I expect she will be.  

Wakanaka (8) and Sugar Fix (2) will be added to the second position on exacta tickets. Wakanaka was making her U.S. debut when sixth in the Pegasus and won a Group 3 stakes race in Italy 11 months ago so could improve, while Sugar Fix loves to win (10 for 21 on turf) and although never competitive in a graded stakes can’t be ruled out for a piece as she’s also been second four times on grass.

Note about the pace of this race: Jouster (3), Quinoa Tifah (4), In Italian (9), Katama Moonlight (10) and Navratilova (11) may all be need-the-lead types or will be forced to use speed to get position, particularly the outside three horses. That’s why, no matter how good they look on paper overall, their chances of winning appear to be compromised.

Win bets:

Gift List (6) and Alms (7) can be bet to win at odds of 5 to 2 or higher.

Bipartisanship (5) can be bet to win at odds of 7 to 1 or higher.

Strategy: Bet either Gift List or Alms, whichever is higher odds near post time, provided odds are 5 to 2 or higher. If both Gift List and Alms are 5 to 1 odds or higher near post time, you can bet them both.

Consider a smaller win bet on Bipartisanship if 7 to 1 or higher odds near post time. Even if only for a token amount like $5, this bet should be made as the filly is likely to go to post at high odds.

Exactas:

Gift List (6) and Alms (7) over Gift List (6), Alms (7), Sugar Fix (2), Bipartisanship (5) and Wakanaka (8).

Bipartisanship (5), Gift List (6) and Alms (7) over Gift List (6), Alms (7), Sugar Fix (2), Bipartisanship (5) and Wakanaka (8)