Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | March 6, 2020

Race 9 at Santa Anita | Saturday March 6 | Post Time 7:26 PM Eastern

Frank E. Kilroe Mile – Grade 1 | Purse $400,000 | One Mile on Turf | Four Year Olds and Upward

In an incredibly deep and talented 10 horse field there is a lot of value and likely NO heavy favorite, as the morning line favorite, Ride a Comet (9) is 7 to 2. There is only one horse in the field of 10 which has very little probability to win, Royal Ship (4), who opens at 15/1. That leaves nine horses most handicappers can make a case for. That being said, I’m starting with Count Again (8), who opens as the second highest price in the field at 12/1 and I can’t figure out why.

Count Again won his first and second turf routes, the second and third starts of his career, then three later won the Grade 3 Singspiel Stakes at Woodbine, also on turf. Next out, Count Again was highly regarded by bettors at 5 to 2 in the Grade 1 Northern Dancer Stakes last October and although fourth and finding the mile and one-half too long made a big move to get within a head of the leader with an eighth of a mile to go and only lost third by a head. Shipped to California and to the top barn of Phil D’Amato, Count Again put in a visually impressive rally while five paths wide to win the Grade 2 Seabiscuit Stakes in November at 8 to 1. Juan Hernandez rode him for the first time in that race and rode him back just over a month later in the San Gabriel Stakes, his first try on the Santa Anita turf. Sent to post as the even money favorite Count Again ran last around the track and was eased. We can ABSOLUTELY draw a line through that race because when he returned to training one month later and since then Count Again has put in FIVE superb workouts, the most recent a strong five furlong drill in 58.2 which was the best of the day. Already a grade 2 stakes winner, with a strong 114 Equibase figure earned in the Seabiscuit and having run the last quarter mile in one of his mile races in a sparkling 22.6 seconds, Count Again could easily run the same way he did last fall and rally from last to first to post the upset.

In the Seabiscuit, Flavius (6) had rallied from a little closer than Count Again as he was ninth with a half-mile to go while Count Again was 11^th. Still, Flavius put in a brilliant turn of foot go from eighth with a quarter mile to run to be second with an eighth of a mile to go, actually leading between the eighth pole and sixteenth poles before being run down by Count Again and settling for second at 5 to 2 odds. Rested since then and returning to trainer Chad Brown’s barn in Florida, Flavius ships back to California and whereas you might expect him to open about the same odds, his starting odds of 6/1 are impossible to ignore in this situation, particularly as he earned a strong 114 figure winning the $700,000 Tourist Mile Stakes at Kentucky Downs last summer.

Social Paranoia (3) is another horse like to go to post at odds which are much higher than his probability to win suggests they should be. Last March, Social Paranoia closed from last of 12 to win the Appleton Stakes at this mile trip, earning a field high 121 figure and running the last quarter mile in 22.5 seconds. In his most recent race, Social Paranoia found the one and three-sixteenths mile trip of the Pegasus World Cup Turf to be a bit too far, but similar to Count Again in the Northern Dancer last year, Social Paranoia was competitive just before the final portion of the race, third and a neck behind the leader with an eighth of a mile to go. That suggest he will really appreciate the cut back in distance, especially since he’s undefeated in three tries at a mile.

As I said at the onset, there are no real knocks on most of the rest, including Smooth Like Strait (1), Hit the Road (2), Spirit Animal (5), Casa Creed (7), Ride a Comet (8) and Flying Scotsman (10). Therefore the key to making a profit in this race is to use the listed contenders, all opening at 6 to 1 or higher, as keys in the exotic wagers involving this race.

Betting Strategies – Starting with the top choice below, at or above the minimum odds, make win bets. My preference is to bet two of the three at those odds or above.

Win:

Count Again (8) to win at odds of 3 to 1 or higher.

Flavius (6) to win at odds of 3 to 1 or higher

Social Paranoia (3) to win at odds of 4 to 1 or higher.

Exactas:

Count Again (8), Flavius (6) and Social Paranoia (3) over Count Again (8), Flavius (6), Social Paranoia (3), Smooth Like Strait (1), Hit the Road (2), Spirit Animal (5), Casa Creed (7), Ride a Comet (8) and Flying Scotsman (10)