Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | May 14, 2022

Race 9 at Churchill Downs | Saturday May 14 | Post Time 10:11 PM Eastern

Mamzelle Stakes | Purse $160,000 | Five Furlongs on Turf | Fillies, Three Years Old

Contenders:

Mystic Eyes (2) offers us low odds overlay value for a win bet, as well is a great horse to key on our exacta tickets. The reason is although she opens at 3 to 1, the starting favorite Twilight Gleaming (6 to 5) is a bit suspect. I’ll talk about that more later when I talk about Twilight Gleaming. Mystic Eyes has done little wrong in her career, starting with a superb win in hand by nearly five lengths in a turf sprint like this. She was highly regarded enough to enter a stakes in  her second start, last summer, and was not disgraced when leading late and settling for second of 11 at the end. Next she was beaten one length after leading from the start in the Grade 3 Matron Stakes on the grass at Belmont, before ending her 2021 season with a win in a stakes on the grass at Belmont. Now she’s a more mature three year old, fresh off a six month layoff, and with better early speed and a better post than Twilight Gleaming. This will enable Ricardo Santana to get Mystic Eyes out on the lead from the start from where she can relax and go all the way.

Boxing Day (4) is the interesting longshot, opening at 15 to 1. She too won a turf sprint in her career debut, one day before Mystic Eyes finished second last summer at Kentucky Downs. She ran poorly in two totally irrelevant turf routes then took three months off. Returning in March and back in a sprint, Boxing Day ran pretty good as she led by a half-length late in the race then settled for second in a field of nine. Although third in her next start on March 24, her most recent, she ran faster, and she made up two and one-half lengths in the late stages. She’s on an improving pattern and although not nearly as likely to win as Mystic Eyes, Boxing Day is more likely to run well than her 15/1 starting odds suggest.

Artos (9) ran second in a turf sprint in her career debut last April to Ruthin, who is now a stakes winner. Then nearly one year ago this week, Artos broke her maiden in her second career start, here at Churchill Downs on the turf, in a race which she led early, fell back to fourth (three lengths behind the winner) then re-rallied to win. She went to Royal Ascot last June and was NOT disgraced when fourth of 21 in the Queen Mary Stakes, a race in which Twilight Gleaming finished second. Rested for nine months, Artos returned in a stakes at Gulfstream Park at the end of March and although well regarded ran poorly to end up last of nine. Returning to Kentucky, she’s feeling very good as evidenced by a sparkling half-mile workout in 47.4 from the gate 10 days ago, and so if she runs back either of her first two races, particularly the one here at Churchill Downs, she could have a say in the outcome.

Twilight Gleaming (5) opens as the 6 to 5 favorite. She has three wins but then she also has three runner-up finishes, in six starts. She tries hard but last month in the similar Palisades Stakes at Keeneland she got run down in the late stages as the four to five favorite after leading on slow fractions. Considering she’s not going to lead early this time, as Mystic Eyes is faster and has an inside draw, Twilight Gleaming is going to have to pass in the final yards, which is not something she’s done to date.

Win bets:

Mystic Eyes (2) at odds of 9 to 5 or higher.
A smaller win bet can be made on Boxing Day (4) at odds of 6 to 1 or more.

Exactas:

Mystic Eyes (2) over Boxing Day (4), Twilight Gleaming (5) and Artos (9).

For a smaller amount, perhaps the $1 minimum, or $2, box Mystic Eyes (2), Boxing Day (4) and Artos (9).