Race 10 at Churchill Downs | Saturday, May 16 | Post Time 5:4 PM Eastern Time

Purse $81,000 | Seven Furlongs | Three Year Old Fillies

On many days, at many tracks, a race like this might be a feature race as it carries an $81,000 purse. It also features a field of 12 plus four also-eligibles so there are likely going to be 12 when the gate opens. Better still, the morning line favorites open at 4 to 1 odds which means there is a lot of value to be had even with some of the more logical horses.

Two of them, Four Graces (8) and Miss T Too (5) have comments in their past performance lines which should get our attention because they suggest these are exceptionally talented fillies. In her debut on March 1, at this seven furlong trip, Four Graces won in a “mild drive” by a length and one-half, earning a strong 89 Equibase Speed Figure for her debut effort Miss T Too earned her first career win in her second career start, seven days after Four Graces and also at Gulfstream Park, earning a 92 figure with the comment “hand urged.”

Four Graces finished fourth of eight in her only other start, even though sent to post as the 8 to 5 favorite. The reasons I believe Four Graces can return to the winning form shown in her debut are twofold, the first being the cut back from a mile to the seven furlong distance of the win and the second being a jockey change to Julien Leparoux, who as aboard for that win and not for the race since then. Another interesting fact of note is although trainer Wilkes is a solid trainer, it’s fairly well known his horses aren’t cranked up first out. This is evidenced by a record of eight for 139 the past two years. Additionally, Wilkes “go-to” jockey is his son-in-law Chris Landeros, but for this filly’s debut Wilkes went to Leparoux, who he’s going back to today.

Opposite of Four Graces in another way, Miss T Too was sent to post as the 9 to 5 favorite in her February 23 debut, fairly rare for a first time starter trained by Bill Mott. She battled head-and-head for the lead over the opening half-mile then faded badly to 10^th of 12. For her seconds start, Mott went to John Velazquez, who rides the filly today. In that field of seven, Miss T Too set the pace from the start and never gave another horse a chance. There may be other early speed in this race but I don't think this filly is a need-the-lead type so that’s of no concern. The race Miss T Too won on March 8 turned out to be a “KEY Race” which was productive in that both the runner-up and third place finishers both came back to win and improve their figures nicely.

Mo City (1), Portrait (2) and Aurelia Garland (11) are also contenders, with lesser chances to win than the top two above, but with a decent shot to be part of the exacta or trifecta. All have slight knocks compared to the top two, starting with Mo City, who won at six furlongs in her December debut, missed by a neck at this seven furlong trip in a stakes in January then was badly beaten in a stakes in March. Portrait won by 12 lengths last summer in career start #2 at this distance but in her three races since has lost ground in the last eighth of a mile, most recently at this level (but around two turns) as the 6 to 5 favorite. Aurelia Garland won her only start, last May, very easily, then left training in September for a layoff after not returning to the races. She resumed training in February while changing trainers (for the same owner as she had before but with a couple of new ones) and has been working well. Still, she’s been off a year.

Betting Strategies:

Win Bets: Both Four Graces (8) and Miss T Too (5) can be bet to win at odds of 5 to 2 or more.  

Exactas:

Four Graces (8) and Miss T Too (5) over ALL

Four Graces (8) and Miss T Too (5) over Four Graces (8), Miss T Too (5), Mo City (1), Portrait (2) and Aurelia Garland (11)

Trifecta: Box Four Graces (8), Miss T Too (5), Mo City (1), Portrait (2) and Aurelia Garland (11)