Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | May 21, 2022

Race 13 at Pimlico | Saturday May 21 | Post Time 7:01 PM Eastern

Preakness Stakes – Grade 1 | Purse $1.5 Million | One Mile and Three-Sixteenths | Three Year Olds

Top Contenders:

Secret Oath (4) was visually impressive winning the Kentucky Oaks 15 days ago. If we correctly ignore her third place effort in against males in the Arkansas Derby prior to the Oaks, because she broke slowly before rallying from ninth to second while six paths wide on the far turn, before tiring to third, the filly has won three stakes in a row. After a seven length win in the Martha Washington Stakes in January, Secret Oath won the Honeybee Stakes by the same margin four weeks later. Then two weeks ago in the Oaks, Secret Oath took over with three eighths of a mile to run and was widening her margin of victory when the wire came up. That effort earned her a career-best 105 Equibase Speed Figure which is the same as Epicenter (8) earned one day later in the Kentucky Derby. However, the difference between Secret Oath and Epicenter is as a filly Secret Oath gets a five pound break in the weights, which can be significant at this distance. Another factor in her favor is the fact Secret Oath didn’t have to run all-out in the Oaks whereas Epicenter was battling head and head for most of the stretch with Zandon before both were passed by Rich Strike. Luis Saez rode Secret Oath for the first time in the Oaks and gets the return engagement in the Preakness, which is yet another reason I think Secret Oath can follow in the footsteps of Rachel Alexandra, who won the Oaks and Preakness in 2009, and Swiss Skydiver, who finished second in the Oaks before winning the Preakness in 2020.

Creative Minister (2) is a very interesting horse who may go to post at high odds in the Preakness. Tied with Early Voting (5) as the most lightly raced horse in the field, Creative Minister has only run three times and never in a stakes. Other than that his record is the same as that of Early Voting and he’s run just as fast. After losing by a neck in a sprint in his career debut in March, Creative Minister stretched out to two-turns and won decisively in a field of 12 in April, earning a then career-best 88 Figure. Coming back on the undercard on Derby Day, Creative Minister earned a new career-best figure of 108, which was higher than Rich Strike earned winning the Kentucky Derby later in the same day. His connections think so highly of the colt they paid a $150,000 supplemental fee to run in the Preakness as he was not originally nominated for the race. Getting a good inside post, Creative Minister can save ground while racing mid-pack as he has done in his last two races, and if he continues his pattern of improvement he could be strong factor, perhaps even posting the upset win in this year’s Preakness.

Epicenter (8) was ultra-game in the Derby as he moved up quickly after a half-mile to go from eighth to first and held that position until near the wire when passed by Rich Strike. Epicenter also showed his desire to win as he battled with Zandon for most of the last quarter mile of the race and was drawing away by a length from his foe at the end even after Rich Strike had secured victory. After earning four successive 97 figures including when winning the Risen Star Stakes and Louisiana Derby, Epicenter improved to a career-best 105 figure and if he can take even the slightest step forward in the Preakness this race could yield one heck of a stretch battle once again with Secret Oath and with Creative Minister if both repeat their most recent efforts.

Honorable mention goes to Simplification (1) and to Early Voting (5). Simplification rallied past 11 horses to finish fourth in the Derby, earning a career best 101 figure. He may find the slightly shorter distance of the Preakness to his liking although it must be noted when racing one mile and one-eighth for the first time in the Florida Derby prior to the Kentucky Derby, Simplification lost both ground and position in the final eighth of a mile when going from second (a head behind the leader) to third (two lengths behind the winner). Early Voting has been freshened since his neck defeat in the Wood Memorial in April and trainer Chad Brown made the conscious decision to skip the Derby in favor of this race. The colt is on a pattern for nice improvement as he earned a 79 figure in his debut, then 81 winning the Withers Stakes before a 102 figure in the Wood Memorial. My main concern with Early Voting has to do with the fact he led from start to finish in the Withers and tried the same tactics in the Wood, noting in this field both Armagnac (7) and Fenwick (3) are both likely to want the lead from the start as that appears their only hope of success and if that scenario occurs, Early Voting may find himself in a position (third) in the early stages he’s never been in previously.  

Win bets:

Secret Oath (4) at odds of 5 to 2 or higher.

Creative Minister (2) at odds of 3 to 1 or higher.

Considering I think the second morning line favorite, Early Voting (5) has less probability to win then is suggested by his low starting odds, this is absolutely a race where we can bet both horses above to win.

Exactas:

Secret Oath (4) and Creative Minister (2) over Simplification (1), Creative Minister (2), Secret Oath (4), Early Voting (5) and Epicenter (8).

Simplification (1), Creative Minister (2), Secret Oath (4), Early Voting (5) and Epicenter (8) over Secret Oath (4) and Creative Minister (2).

The strategy behind playing both exactas is to win the bet twice is Secret Oath and Creative Minister finish first and second.

Epicenter (8) over Simplification (1), Creative Minister (2) and Secret Oath (4).

The reason for leaving Early Voting (5) off the second position on this ticket is to eliminate the lowest paying combination but optionally you can use Early Voting as well.

Trifecta:

Creative Minister (2), Secret Oath (4), Epicenter (8) over Simplification (1), Creative Minister (2), Secret Oath (4), Early Voting (5), Epicenter (8) over Simplification (1), Creative Minister (2), Secret Oath (4), Early Voting (5), Epicenter (8), Skippylongstocking (9).

The reason we are adding one additional horse (Skippylongstocking) in third is because he opens at 20 to 1 and finished in that position in the Wood Memorial Stakes in his most recent race.