Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | May 22, 2021

Race 9 at Churchill Downs | Saturday May 22 | Post Time 10:11 PM Eastern

Keertana Stakes | Purse $110,000 | One Mile and One Half on Turf | Fillies and Mares, Four Years Old and Upward

For all intents and purposes this is an allowance race because only two of the 10 are stakes winners. Treating it as an allowance race, and a wide open one at that with many horses not having won this year to date or last, we have to look at a couple of nice odds horses first, particularly as the last time we took on an overnight stakes on the turf at Churchill Downs (May 8) we cashed on Lady Edith at $50.

I’ll start with Sursum Corda (7) and First Course (2), opening at odds of 30/1 and 15/1, respectively. They just finished fourth and first, respectively, in an allowance race at Keeneland on April 22 run at this 12 furlong turf distance. Sursum Corda was better regarded at 6/1 but did not run as well as First Course, who was 17 to 1. The reasons why appear OBVIOUS to me – First Course was making her second start off a four month layoff whereas Sursum Corda was making her first start after six months off. Not only will Sursum Corda logically improve second off the layoff just as First Course did last month, but Sursum Corda earned her only win last July at Saratoga at 11 furlongs which tells me the additional furlong is no problem. As to First Course, if this was a second level allowance race (NW2X) there’s no way her starting odds would be 15/1 off a win one month ago at the distance. This being her third start of the year and the fact she’s facing a number of other horses which possess only a first level allowance win to their credit, she has every right to run well again.

Now we move to examine the three starting favorites, Pass the Plate (5), Delta’s Kingdom (8) and Dalika (10). Pass the Plate is the more likely of the trio to win, but no more likely to win than either Sursum Corda or First Course in my opinion. Pass the Plate has won two of her last 12 races, one of those a NW2X allowance race at a mile on turf and the other a non-graded stakes like this one, at a mile on turf for three year olds only. Since moving up to face four year olds, Pass the Plate has finished third twice and fifth once. Two of those came in non-graded races like this and one of the third place efforts was last month in the Grade 3 Bewitch Stakes, the first time EVER Pass the Plate ran 12 furlongs. Those are hardly reasons she’s should be 3 to 1 to start here. Delta’s Kingdom is winless in her last 11 races and possesses a 2 for 19 career record, with 10 second or third place finishes. She finished second in the Bewitch last month and although a good effort she should not be 5 to 2 here as her starting odds are. Dalika finished fifth in the Bewitch, at 11 to 1 odds so she wasn’t highly regarded at all yet she opens at 3 to 1 here. Dalika has won four races from her last 10 and two were non-graded stakes like this one but both were at much shorter distances.

Strategy: KEY the two high odds contenders Sursum Corda and First Course with the three lower odds contenders in exotics and bet them BOTH to win.

Win bets:

Sursum Corda (7) and First Course (2) at odds of 4 to 1 or more.

Exactas (two wagers below):

Sursum Corda (7) and First Course (2) over Sursum Corda (7), First Course (2), Pass the Plate (3), Delta’s Kingdom (8) and Dalika (10).

Sursum Corda (7), First Course (2), Pass the Plate (3), Delta’s Kingdom (8) and Dalika (10) over Sursum Corda (7) and First Course (2).