Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | May 29, 2021

Race 10 at Churchill Downs | Saturday May 29 | Post Time 5:26 PM Eastern

Aristides Stakes | Purse $150,000 | Six Furlongs | Four Years Olds and Upward

This is a great betting race with a vulnerable 3 to 1 morning line favorite in Tap It to Win (10), who finished 11^th of 12 in the Churchill Downs Stakes on Derby Day. Although Tap It to Win is dropping in class considerably and although his only other race this year was a winning one, that win came in a stakes with a field of six at Tampa Bay Downs restricted to Florida Breds only. Other than that, Tap it to Win has NEVER won a stakes although he finished second and third, respectively, in graded stakes in his final two starts of 2020. Then again, those races were for three year olds early and NEITHER effort was fast enough to win in this field if repeated.

Sir Alfred James (9) is one of three win contenders who have a big edge over the other nine entrants here. He gets a great outside post and has won on the lead as well as from as far back as fourth in the early stages to jockey Hernandez will have a choice of where to place the horse early depending on who else goes for the lead. Sir Alfred James just won at Churchill Downs on April 27, at the distance of the Aristides, and the 111 Equibase Speed Figure (a number representing time which makes it easy to compare performances) is the BEST (fastest) last race figure in the field. To put that into perspective, when Empire of Gold finished second in the Grade 2 Phoenix Stakes at the distance last fall, he earned a 109 figure and the winner earned a 110 figure. As such, Sir Alfred James can win this race just by repeating his effort at the end of April but he actually may improve upon it as this will be his third dirt start off a layoff.

Bango (3) is a hard-trying colt with six wins in 15 main track races. Although he has lost four in a row, the last two were graded stakes (grade 3 and grade 1) so this is a significant change in company. He led at the six furlong mark four weeks ago in the seven furlong Churchill Downs Stakes (in which Tap It to Win finished 11^th) so this cut back to six furlong may hit Bango right between the eyes. Last November, Bango ran the best race of his career, at Churchill Downs and at this six furlong trip, earning a 119 figure which would blow the doors off this field if repeated. As four of his five career wins have come over this strip, Bango must be respected as a win contender in this race.

Empire of Gold (5) rounds out the win contenders. He returned from five months off in April and finished third in the Grade 3 Count Fleet Stakes then won on April 30. He earned back-to-back 106 figures for those efforts and as previously mentioned earned a 109 figure when second in the Phoenix last fall. Similar to Bango, Empire of Gold has five career wins (from 15 starts). Making only his third start off a layoff, Empire of Gold is likely to take a big step forward and his only knock is he’s never won two races in a row.

Win bets: As long as vulnerable favorite Tap It to Win (10) runs in the race, there is profit opportunity wagering on two of the three contenders to win.

All three contenders have about a 25%-28% chance to win, so their fair odds are about 5/2 or 3/1. Therefore, opening at 8 to 1, Sir Alfred James (9) is a MUST bet to win at 5/2 or higher. Although Bango (3) opens at 4 to 1 and Empire of Gold (5) opens at 7/2, whichever of the pair is the highest odds and is 5/2 or more near post time can be bet to win as well.

Exacta: Box Sir Alfred James (9)¸ Bango (3) and Empire of Gold (5).

Optional Trifecta: Sir Alfred James (9)¸ Bango (3) and Empire of Gold (5) with ALL with Sir Alfred James (9)¸ Bango (3) and Empire of Gold (5). Note: If played in conjunction with the exacta this covers the possibility of any two of the three contenders finishing first and third. If all three finish in the top three positions, we win both bets.