Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | May 7, 2022

Race 7 at Churchill Downs | Saturday May 7 | Post Time 1:56 PM Eastern

Pat Day Mile Stakes – Grade 2 | Purse $500,000 | One Mile | Three Year Olds

Although this race runs through likely heavy betting favorite Jack Christopher (5), a phenomenon as a two year old who is returning to the races after seven months off, I will try to beat him. After a sensational debut last August, the colt easily won the Champagne Stakes at Belmont in October but then did not make any of the big two year old races thereafter. He didn’t make any of the three year old races this winter or early spring either, leading to talk he was injured, or something was amiss. Returning to training in February after three months off, Jack Christopher has been working consistently and without a doubt if he runs as he did in either of his 2021 races he can win. HOWEVER, there is an elephant in the room as there is with many a horse off for a long time and/or returning as a three year old, and particularly when considering wagering on one who is likely to be the prohibitive favorite.

Win contenders:

With so many of the horses here having taken their shots on the Road to the Derby in longer races, the horses which are proven sprinters (a one turn mile at Churchill Downs is just a long sprint). Tejano Twist (6) is one of those and he opens at 10/1. Now first or second in eight of 11 races, if we can excuse his last race (in which he finished 11^th) as an aberration he has absolutely every right to win. He won the $200K Lively Shively Stakes at Churchill Downs last November as the 6 to 5 favorite and he returned off a two and one-half month rest in March to be beaten only three-quarters of a length with a 107 Equibase Speed Figure equaled only by Jack Christopher’s Champagne figure from last year. He should run very well.

My Prankster (11) has run six times, all sprints, winning three of those and finishing second in another. He won the similar Grade 3 Swale Stakes in February then took two months off then finished fourth last month, a race he can move forward off of in his second start back.

Major General (1) is the only horse cutting back in distance I can consider as a contender. He won his debut last summer sprinting then won the Iroquois Stakes around two turns here at Churchill Downs. After a poor 10^th place effort following six months off, Major General rebounded to finish second in the Lexington Stakes three weeks ago after leading for most of the race. Blinkers added for that race, and/or the fact Irad Ortiz Jr. rode for the first time, are the reasons for that turnaround and with the same jockey in the saddle today Major General should have a big say in the outcome. 

Win bets:

Tejano Twist (6) and My Prankster (11) at odds of 7 to 2 or higher.
 

Exactas:

Box Major General (1), Tejano Twist (6) and My Prankster (11).