Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | May 8, 2021

Race 10 at Churchill Downs | Saturday May 8 | Post Time 5:26 PM Eastern

Mamzelle Stakes | Purse $110,000 | Five Furlongs on Turf | Fillies, Three Year Olds

13 horses are entered in this superb betting race and I have narrowed the contenders which can win or finish second down to six, with two of the six KEYS to betting the race. With no strong favorite likely, this race provides some nice opportunity to make a profit.

Lady Edith (11) is who I am going to write about first, not because she’s any more likely to win as compared to the other contenders, but because she starts at 12/1 odds. The filly won her career debut in a similar turf sprint last July then after pressing a hot pace in a stakes in career start #2 faded to fifth. For whatever reason she was tried on dirt after that and finished 10^th and that’s a TOTALLY irrelevant effort. Rested for a few months, Lady Edith returned in a turf sprint and pressed the pace while second before fading. I think she needed a race and that was proven in her second start back off the layoff on March 24 when she stalked the pace early and blasted off to a five length win. That effort earned a career-best 89 Equibase Figure (enabling us to compare horses) which is very strong and likely to be improved upon in her third start off the layoff. With an outside post, jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. can sit off one of at least four potential early leaders and has a decent shot to post the upset with the kind of improvement I’m expecting off her last effort.

Goin’ Good (2) is the other key to our betting in this race but opens at much lower odds (7 to 2) compared to Lady Edith. Like Lady Edith, Goin’ Good won in her career debut in a turf sprint last year. She won her second career start as well, also a turf sprint. She took nearly three months off and returned near the end of February in a stakes on dirt and finished second then moved back to turf and finished second in the Limestone Turf Sprint Stakes at Keeneland. In that race, Goin’ Good rallied from fifth and made the lead around the sixteenth pole (one-sixteenth of a mile to run) before being beaten by a half-length at the end. She improved to a 92 career-best figure which is slightly better than Lady Edith’s last race but young three year olds can improve markedly, or just a little, with each start and that is why I think both Goin’ Good and Lady Edith have about the same probability to win.

The next group consists of four horses I wouldn’t argue with anyone who felt they can win, and we will certainly use ALL four on any exacta tickets played. Illegal Smile (3), Wink (4) and Amanzi Yimpilo (7) are all trained by Wesley Ward and all three have credentials to win. Illegal Smile returns from six months off but Ward wins at an above average percentage with horses coming back from this kind of layoff. She won a stakes on turf before the layoff but it must be noted she may be a horse which likes to lead early, and as a fresh horse it may be tough to get her to relax so there’s a possibility she will get into a duel for the lead and be vulnerable to being passed in the stretch. Wink (4) has won three of four races and finished second in the other, all but her debut being stakes races. She won in March following six months off (which I referred to about Ward’s Illegal Smile) and can improve second off the layoff, BUT she is a need-the-lead type who may, or may not, be able to hold on if there are other horses in the race who demand the lead as well. Amanzi Yimpilo won her debut last June on turf then won a stakes in September after sitting in second. She may be in the best position of the three Ward trainees to capitalize if there is an early pace battle, by getting first run on the leaders before the deeper closers get into gear.

Then there’s Navratilova (12) ¸ who opens at 8 to 1. She won her debut last summer in a turf sprint and showed a lot of maturity because in spite of breaking poorly to be away ninth of 10 she rallied to win going away. She stretched out to two-turns and ran badly in a stakes in her second career start but we should ignore that race. She returned last month after seven months and wasn’t disgraced when third behind runner-up Goin’ Good in that stakes at Keeneland. Certainly if Goin’ Good is to be respected as a contender at 7 to 2, the 8 to 1 starting odds on Navratilova make her hard to ignore.

Betting Strategies –

Win bets:

Lady Edith (11) and .Goin’ Good (2) at odds of 3 to 1.

Note: In a race with no heavy favorite and a big field, betting two, or sometimes three, horses to win (called Dutching) is a sound strategy.

Additionally, you can consider a win bet for a smaller amount on Navratilova (8) to win at odds of 6 to 1 or higher.

Exactas (two wagers below):

Goin’ Good (2) and Lady Edith (11) over Goin’ Good (2), Illegal Smile (3), Wink (4), Amanzi Yimpilo (7), Lady Edith (11) and Navratilova (12).

Then, the opposite of the above, which is:

Goin’ Good (2), Illegal Smile (3), Wink (4), Amanzi Yimpilo (7), Lady Edith (11) and Navratilova (12) over Goin’ Good (2) and Lady Edith (11).

If Goin’ Good and Lady Edith finish first and second, we win twice. Otherwise we win if either finishes first and any of the other five finishes second, or if the opposite occurs.