Race 9 at Gulfstream Park | Saturday, May 9 | Post Time 4:29 PM Eastern Time

Sunshine Forever Stakes| Purse $75,000 | One Mile and One Sixteenth on Turf | Four Year Olds and Upward

I like Aquaphobia (4) to win the Sunshine Forever Stakes, opening at sweet odds of 10/1. He may be able to win this race just as he won the identical Old Man Eloquent Stakes on the course at the same distance in February. That win came right after trainer Michael Maker claimed him for $62,500 and it was the best effort he put forth in over a year in terms of the 107 Equibase figure earned in that race. Stepping up into the much tougher Muniz Memorial Stakes one month later, Aquaphobia wasn’t disgraced when fourth of 12. Today he gets the services of Irad Ortiz, Jr., who has been red hot (15 for 48) since returning from time off a couple of weeks ago and Ortiz, Jr. should have Aquaphobia in a stalking position around fourth in the early stages just as he was in the Old Man Eloquent in February and get up in time to win.

Admission Office (11) is another with credentials to succeed although he doesn’t find the winners’ circle very often. Winner of three of his first five races, although none of those were stakes races, Admission Office missed by a half-length in the Dixie Stakes on Preakness day last spring. Duplicating that fine effort, Admission Office missed by a half-length in the Wise Dan Stakes one month later, then followed up with defeats by less than a length in the River City Stakes and Fort Lauderdale Stakes. In his most recent race, Admission Office rallied from far back in seventh to make the lead at the top of the stretch in the Mac Diarmida Stakes, only to get run down by multiple stake winner Zulu Alpha in the last sixteenth of a mile. That effort earned a 117 figure more than good enough to win this race if he can repeat the effort.

Halladay (6) earned a career best 115 figure winning his most recent race on April 4, Saez up for the first time and riding him again today. Halladay won the Tropical Park Derby at this distance over the course two races prior to that w9ith a 108 figure after stalking in second in the early stages so does not need the lead to win. In between those two he was a troubled fourth in the Tampa Bay Stakes and might have run better if not bumped in a very problematic stretch run. There’s not much early speed inside so I think Saez will use the same tactics as he did last month which makes Halladay one of the ones to consider as win contenders here.

Social Paranoia (9) certainly deserves a lot of respect when considering who can win this race as he just won the Appleton Stakes over the course with a big rally from seventh at the eighth pole. The 118 figure earned in the Appleton is the best last race figure in the field and there’s no concern with the jockey change to Edgard Zayas, who has won with eight of 30 (27%) of starters he’s ridden for trainer Todd Pletcher in the last year. On the other hand, Social Paranoia opens at 3 to 1 and when I consider which of the two morning line favorites (the other being Admission Office) have a better chance to win, I’ll go with other. Additionally, the way to profit is to avoid using the two favorites on exacta and trifecta tickets as much as possible and that’s the reason for some of the strategies below.

Betting Strategies:

Win Bets: Aquaphobia (4) to win at odds of 3 to 1 or more.  

Exactas:

Box Aquaphobia (4), Halladay (6) and Admission Office (11)

Box Aquaphobia (4), Halladay (6) and Social Paranoia (9)

Trifecta: Aquaphobia (4), Halladay (6), Social Paranoia (9) and Admission Office (11) over Aquaphobia (4), Halladay (6), Social Paranoia (9) and Admission Office (11) over Aquaphobia (4), Halladay (6), Social Paranoia (9), Admission Office (11), Sand Dancer (2), Cullum Road (5) and Hawkish (7).