Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | November 12, 2022

Race 7 at Woodbine | Saturday November 12 | Post Time 4:25 PM Eastern

Maple Leaf Stakes – Grade 3 | Purse $4 Million | One Mile and One-Quarter | Fillies and Mares, Three Year Olds and Upward

Win contenders:

Charges Dropped (3) is very interesting because although she’s run 16 times ONLY her two most recent are representative of what she’s capable of today, and those were big efforts. The reason only those two weight highest when assessing her chances to run well here are that blinkers went on for the first of the two, a stakes on the grass at Gulfstream Park in September. In that race she closed three wide into the stretch and was making up ground when the finish came up, losing by three quarters of a length while more than three clear of the next horse. Next, excellent trainer Mike McCarthy shipped her from his home base in Southern California to Kentucky, for a workout, then to Presque Isle Downs in Pennsylvania for her first try on the all-weather Tapeta surface and she took to that test like a champ, rallying from sixth of nine early and drawing off by three lengths. She earned a career-best, and field high, last race 102 Equibase figure. Kimura went down from Canada to ride her and gets the return mount as she ships to Woodbine, in the best form of her life and ready to earn her first stakes win.

The depth doesn’t stop there and the value in the race, at least for exacta and trifecta profit, lies with Silent Causeway (10), who opens at 12 to 1 odds. This is in spite of being very consistent and having finished first or second in nine of 18 career starts on the main track at Woodbine. She won a stakes race last December over the surface and, similar to Kimura riding Charges Dropped, the fast Patrick Husbands rides Silent Causeway is very telling. Husbands rode the mare for the first time in July, to a sixth place finish, but then to two straight wins and a narrow defeat in a classified allowance race on 10/1 where the mare earned a career-best 97 figure. She ran poorly with another jockey last out but now she’s reunited with Husbands those very competitive efforts could be representative of what she’s going to do today.

Transient (11) is also very interesting, as Jose Ortiz takes off an entire day of mounts at Aqueduct to ride this race (and the other stakes on the card). This filly finished third and second in her two forays to Woodbine earlier this year, then shipped to Saratoga for a big runner-up effort, beaten a half-length with a 97 figure comparable to Silent Causeway’s best. She won an 11 furlong turf race last time out at the end of September so cutting back to 10 furlongs means she can run the same or better and as such she rounds out the trio of win contenders in this race.

Win bets:

Charges Dropped (3) can be bet to win at 2 to 1 or higher odds.
Silent Causeway (10) can be bet to win, for a smaller amount than Charges Dropped, at 3 to 1 or more

We can consider Transient (11) for a win bet at 3 to 1 or more, but those are her starting odds so better profit can be made by betting either of the other two horses to win, and using Transient on exacta and trifecta tickets as below.

Exactas: Box Charges Dropped (3), Silent Causeway (10) and Transient (11).

Trifectas: ($0.20 minimum) - Charges Dropped (3), Silent Causeway (10) and Transient (11) over ALL over Charges Dropped (3), Silent Causeway (10) and Transient (11)

This trifecta, which as a cost of $10.80 at the $0.20 minimum, compliments the exacta so we win if any two of the three contenders finishes 1^st and 3^rd, as we win the exacta if any two of the three contenders finishes 1^st & 2^nd. If all three happen to finish 1^st, 2^nd and 3^rd we win both bets.