Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | November 13, 2021

Race 10 at Churchill Downs | Saturday November 13 | Post Time 5:36 PM Eastern

Dream Supreme Stakes| Purse $300,000 | Six Furlongs | Fillies and Mares, Three Years Old and Upward

The Dream Supreme Stakes brings together a field of seven strong female sprinters for a hefty $300,000 purse. At first glance it may look very similar to the Open Mind Stakes run at Churchill Downs which was run on September 18 and won by Sconsin (4) over Bell’s the One (6), or it may look similar to the Grade 2 Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes run on October 9 at Keeneland, won by Bell’s the One over Club Car (5). To some extent I agree with that assessment, as both races had one horse which set a very fast early pace which benefitted the stalkers and closers. In the Dream Supreme, there are likely to be TWO horses who will want the lead at any cost – Elle Z (2) and Vintage Ready (3), the former having earned her last five wins leading from the start and the latter leading from start to finish in all four of her career wins. Additionally, Frank’s Rockette (7) usually races in second in the early stages but has been known to lead when no other horse wants the front end after the gate opens, although she has been known to sit in third early. Having won eight of 17 races and over $800,000 to date, Frank’s Rockette likely adds pace pressure to the two need-the-lead types.

That sets the race up for a trio of horses,  but the one likely to go to post at the highest odds is Club Car (5), who has as much probability to win as Sconsin (4) and Bell’s the One (6), especially with a jockey change to Joel Rosario. Club Car prefers this six furlong trip, and although she has six runner-up finishes to go along with two wins at the distance in 12 career starts she can win if she repeats her most recent effort. That was when rallying from last of six to miss by a neck in the Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes at Keeneland. She earned a career-best 108 Equibase Speed Figure for that effort, which came in her first start in blinkers and after patiently awaiting room to run on the turn, then wheeling out to the five path to surge in the final stages. With Rosario aboard this time, Club Car should be able to make up the neck she lost by last month and post the mild upset to win this race, or at the very least complete the exacta at odds higher than either of the two likely betting favorites Bell’s the One or Sconsin.

Sconsin (4) loves running at Churchill Downs, where she’s never been worse than second in seven races. Like Club Car, Sconsin earned a career-best Equibase Speed Figure in her most recent race, the Open Mind Stakes, run in September under identical conditions. She made a quick move from fourth on the turn to get the lead while Bell’s the One rallied a bit later from fifth to second. Tyler Gaffalione, who gets off Club Car to ride Sconsin, also rode the filly to a win in the Winning Colors Stakes in May at Churchill Downs, and to a runner-up effort in the Roxelana Stakes behind Bell’s the One in June, the latter race run at six and one-half furlongs. With this race being run at six furlongs, Sconsin has every right to add to her stellar record sprinting at this track.

Bell’s the One (6) has won 10 of 21 races, and she loves this six furlong trip where she has a record of six wins and one runner-up finish in seven races. Her record at Churchill Downs is 3-3-0 in seven races, including the Roxelana Stakes in June and the 2020 Winning Colors, which she did not race in this year and which was won by Sconsin. She is likely to be last or nearly so in the early stages of this race, with Sconsin ahead of her and likely to move earlier as the pacesetters tire, but with 110 and 108 figures earned in her last two races there’s no doubt Bell’s the One is in the best form of her career and should be a factor in the final stages.

There’s no real knocks against Frank’s Rockette (7), nor even longshot Blinkers (1), who finished second in the Saylorville Stakes in July with a career best 102 figure, and both can be considered for exactas with Club Car, who I feel strongly will be first or second if she runs the same as she did last month.

Win bets:

Club Car (5) at odds of 2 to 1 or higher.

Exactas:

Box Club Car (5) and Sconsin (4)

Box Club Car (5) and Bell’s the One (6)

For smaller amounts as compared to the two exactas above:

Box Club Car (5) and Frank’s Rockette (7)

Box Club Car (5) and Blinkers (1)