Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | November 14, 2020

Race 10 at Churchill Downs | Saturday November 14 | Post Time 5:36 PM Eastern

Mrs. Revere Stakes | Purse $200,000 | One Mile and One Sixteenth on Turf | Fillies, Three Years Old

Hendy Woods (1) started her career winning two in a row, both turf routes, in January and March, before a seventh place finish in the Regret Stakes in June on the Churchill Downs sod. Rebounding with a win in the Indiana Grand Stakes with a career-best 100 Equibase Speed Figure, Hendy Woods then closed for second in the similar Edgewood Stakes on this turf course, improving just a bit to a 101 figure. Trying some of the best three year old turf fillies in the country in the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes last month, an race which was by invitation only, Hendy Woods finished sixth of seven but nevertheless was beaten just three and one-quarter lengths at the end. That effort resulted in a new career-best 107 figure which is tied for the best in the field with the figure Stunning Sky earned winning the Valley View Stakes six days later. Getting the ground saving rail and with red hot Tyler Gaffalione in the saddle for the first time, as well as noting Queen Elizabeth winner Harvey’s Lil Goil ran very well when third in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf last weekend, Hendy Woods could be tough to beat in this year’s Mrs. Revere Stakes.

Positive Danger (2) is a live longshot in my opinion because she’s going to be in front from the start, perhaps with no challengers. A perfect two-for-two in turf routes, Positive Danger earned a career-best 87 figure for her  most recent win, in a first level allowance race last month. However, as a three year old taking a step from allowance to run well in stakes is not unheard of. For example, Princess Grace won at the first allowance level two races back in September, then improved to nearly post the upset in the Valley View when coming up a half-length short of Stunning Sky. With an inside post to help ease her way to the front from the opening bell, Positive Danger has potential danger to get a very easy lead, get brave, and perhaps hang on for the upset win.

Stunning Sky (3) and Princess Grace (4) finished first and second, respectively, in the similar Valley View Stakes last month at Keeneland, both earning 107 figures. Stunning Sky has now run 11 times, winning three, while Princess Grace has only run three times, winning twice and finishing second in the other. Stunning Sky closed from ninth in the Valley View but that was a function of the very fast pace which saw her further back early then in her previous starts when she was no more than fifth at any stage. Princess Grace rallied from fifth in the Valley View to make the lead with an eighth of a mile to go, before the more seasoned Stunning Sky ran her down in the final yards. Both fillies have a will to win and the ability to back that up and would be no surprise if in the thick of the action at the end of this race.

Win betting strategy:

Since there’s not a lot of value on three of the four contenders above, with Hendy Woods (1) opening at 3/1, Stunning Sky (3) opening at 5/2 and with Princess Grace (4) opening at 3/1, the only win bet I could see making is:

Hendy Woods at 2 to 1 or more.

Usually I might make two win bets which is a good strategy when there are vulnerable favorites, but not in this case.

That  being said, because Positive Danger (2) opens at 15/1, she can be bet to win as well, but for a smaller amount than on Hendy Woods.

Then, instead of a place bet, and because I think she can hang on for second if she doesn’t win, I like an Exacta consisting of ALL over Positive Danger (2).

Exacta:

Because I feel strongly Hendy Woods (1) will be second if not first we, can key her in the exacta as follows:

Hendy Woods (2) over Positive Danger (2), Stunning Sky (3) and Princes Grace (4) and also the opposite, which is Positive Danger (2), Stunning Sky (3) and Princes Grace (4) over Hendy Woods (2).

Trifectas:

Similarly, we can key Hendy Woods to come in first or second, with any of the others in third, as follows:

Hendy Woods (2) over Positive Danger (2), Stunning Sky (3) and Princes Grace (4) over ALL

Positive Danger (2), Stunning Sky (3) and Princes Grace (4) over Hendy Woods (2) over ALL