Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | November 20, 2021

Race 10 at Churchill Downs | Saturday November 20 | Post Time 5:36 PM Eastern

Chilukki Stakes| Purse $300,000 | One Mile | Fillies and Mares, Three Years Old and Upward

Last week’s Saturday feature race at Churchill Downs, the Dream Supreme Stakes, brought us a thrilling finish when favorite Bell’s the One just ran down our top pick Club Car near the wire. This week’s race also features fillies and mares, this time running one mile in the Chilukki Stakes, where three horses stick out in terms of their probability to succeed, over the rest of the field

I’ll start with Princess Causeway (8), who has won one-third of her 18 career starts. One of those six wins came at Churchill Downs two years ago this month and in a similar elongated sprint, this one at seven furlongs. That day Princess Causeway was cutting back from a mile and one-sixteenth on turf to a sprint and the result was a flying finish from fifth of seven early to win by two lengths from an outside post just like the one she gets today and under Chris Landeros, who rides here. Princess Causeway makes the same moves this time as well, cutting back in distance from a two turn race, also on grass, but with one exception, in that she WON her most recent race. That was a big effort in classified allowance company and with that effort she earned the BEST last race Equibase Speed Figure (107) in the field. This is the perfect spot for Princess Causeway to hold her form and win back-to-back, and in doing so earn her first stakes win.

She Can’t Sing (1) also enters the race off the best effort of her career, which came last month here at Churchill Downs, at a similar distance (seven furlongs). She drew off to win by five lengths in that race and considering she had finished second right before that there is every reason to believe this filly can run another “A” race good enough to be part of the exacta at the least, particularly as since adding blinkers back in May she has two wins, one second and one third in five races.

Obligatory (7) faces older females for the first time in her career consisting of eight races but in the fall that should not be a problem. She won the Eight Belles Stakes in April at seven furlongs over the track, rallying from last of 12 to win by a length, then she ran fantastically well to be second behind Search Results in the tougher Acorn Stakes in June. Given a couple of months off, Obligatory did not run as well in the Test Stakes but rebounded to finish second when stretched out to two turns for the Grade 1 Cotillion. Cutting back last month for the Raven Run Stakes, Obligatory disappointed as the two to one favorite but she drops to this grade 3 level for the first time and that, combined with returning to the track where she won the Eight Belles, gives her a strong chance to return to competitive form.

Win bets:

Princess Causeway (8) at odds of 9 to 5 or higher.

I might consider a win bet on either She Can’t Sing (1) or Obligatory (7), at 5 to 2 odds or higher near post time, and on the one which is the higher odds of the two.

Exactas:

Box Princess Causeway (8), She Can’t Sing (1) and Obligatory (7).