Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | November 21, 2020

Race 9 at Churchill Downs | Saturday November 21 | Post Time 5:06 PM Eastern

Chilukki Stakes – Grade 3 | Purse $100,000 | One Mile | Fillies, Three Year Olds and Upward

Risky Mandate (6) will have every opportunity to steal this race on the front end just like she did a little over a month ago when winning at seven furlongs. That was her first sprint start since adding blinkers and she set strong fractions while giving no other horse a shot, eventually drawing off to win by almost three lengths and earning a career-best 101 Equibase Speed Figure. Flattered when the runner-up returned to win and having put in two very sharp workouts at Churchill Downs in preparation for the race, this filly has potential to control the tempo from start to finish and post the mild upset, opening at 5 to 1.

Finite (2) and Grand Cru Classe (3) are both strong contenders but are unlikely to rise to the level of good win bets, opening at 8/5 and 5/2, respectively. In the Raven Run Stakes last month, Finite closed well to be beaten a neck for second at 9/1 while Grand Cru Classe was outfinished by Finite although she rallied for third, at 20/1 odds. Both fillies have won at this distance of a mile around one turn and Finite is a perfect two-for-two at Churchill Downs including when taking the Rags to Riches Stakes as a two year old last October. Both have tactical speed so if they can stay in contact with Risky Mandate in the early stages, both are capable of winning, particularly as their Equibase Figures from the Raven Run were 109 and 108. However, before that Finite’s best effort yielded a 101 figure and Grand Cru Classe’s best was 89 so there’s a slight question as to whether those last efforts are repeatable.

Gold Standard (5) is the horse which turns this from a mildly profitable race to an exceptionally profitable race if she is at least part of the exacta, opening at 15/1. In my opinion those odds are way out of line for this filly who has won four of eight on the dirt including two at Churchill Downs, the most recent at this one mile trip three weeks ago. That was her second start off a seven month layoff and the pattern of figures (88 to 93) suggests a lot better could be forthcoming, particularly as she earned 98 and 100 figures in her second and third dirt starts last summer when in the midst of a three race winning streak.

For the trifecta and Exacta: We should add Whoa Nellie (4), who has been first or second in four straight and who earned a 100 figure at a mile in one of them. She’s coming back from a layoff but has fired fresh before.  

Win betting strategy:

Risky Mandate (6) to win at odds of 5/2 or more.

I would absolutely also bet Gold Standard (5) to win, for a smaller amount than on Risky Mandate, at 5/1 or higher.

Exacta:

“IF” Gold Standard (5) goes to post at 10 to 1 or higher, I would be an exacta instead of a place bet consisting of ALL over Gold Standard (5).

Then I would play these two exacta combinations, attempting to maximize profit by splitting the favorites Finite and Grand Cru Classe because if they do run first and second, those would be the lowest paying combinations:

Ticket #1: Gold Standard (5) and Risky Mandate (6) over Finite (2), Grand Cru Classe (3), Whoa Nellie (4), Gold Standard (5) and Risky Mandate (6)

Ticket #2: Finite (2), Grand Cru Classe (3), Whoa Nellie (4), Gold Standard (5) and Risky Mandate (6) over Gold Standard (5) and Risky Mandate (6)

Trifectas: Box Finite (2), Grand Cru Classe (3), Whoa Nellie (4), Gold Standard (5) and Risky Mandate (6).