Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | November 26, 2022

Race 11 at Churchill Downs | Saturday November 26 | Post Time 5:56 PM Eastern

Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes – Grade 2 | Purse $400,000 | One Mile | Two Year Olds

The Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes is not only a good race to watch and to wager upon, but it can give us a few contenders on the Road to the Kentucky Derby to keep an eye on for next year. Last year’s winner Smile Happy went on to finish second in this year’s Risen Star Stakes and Blue Grass Stakes before an eighth place finish in the Kentucky Derby. 2021 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes runner-up Classic Causeway won both the Sam F. Davis Stakes and Tampa Bay Derby and ended up 11^th in the Kentucky Derby, while last year’s third place Jockey Club Stakes finisher White Abarrio won both the Holy Bull Stakes as well as the Florida Derby before finishing 16^th in this year’s Run for the Roses.

Win contenders:

Red Route One (5) made his career debut running two-turns on grass this past summer at Saratoga, which is no easy question to answer for a young colt. After a fifth place finish in that debut, Red Route One improved markedly to win by almost four lengths in September, also on turf. Moving to dirt for the first time in the Breeders’ Futurity one month later, the colt broke 11^th in a field of 14 horses and although wide on the far turn, rallied for third while the top two had drawn off by seven lengths. That was a strong field, as winner Forte returned to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, a race Red Route One passed to run in the Street Sense Stakes one month earlier. However, that choice did not help as the track came up sloppy and the colt finished fifth of 10. Still, with his effort in the Futurity resulting in a strong 94 Equibase speed figure (which is tied for the best dirt figure in the field with Instant Coffee), Red Route One might be the horse to beat if he runs back to that effort. This is particularly true as jockey Tyler Gaffalione gets on for the first time and has won 25% of the time he rides for trainer Steve Asmussen over the past couple of years.

Instant Coffee (8) finished on even terms, or very close to it, when fourth in the Breeders’ Futurity just inches behind third place finisher Red Route One. That was his first attempt in a two-turn race following his debut win at seven furlongs at Saratoga one month earlier. Like others in this field, Instant Coffee is on a recognizable pattern of improvement, going from an 89 debut figure to 94 last month. As such, and since the Futurity produced next out Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Forte as well as the runner-up finisher in the Bob Hope Stakes last weekend, this colt should be considered strongly as a contender in this year’s Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes.

Freedom Trail (6) sports the best last race effort in this field, moving his record to a perfect two-for-two when winning the Awad Stakes four weeks ago with a 96 figure. That win, as well as his debut win one month earlier, were on turf but the colt does have good breeding to suggest he can transfer his top form to turf. Additionally, trainer John Terranova has won six times in 27 starts the past two years back-to-back, a pretty strong 22% win rate which suggests Freedom Trail can run well again. Given this is only the third start of his career and he improved off an 82 figure in his debut to 96 last out, logical further improvement suggests Freedom Trail has a big shot to win for the third time in three starts.

If you are wondering why I haven’t listed Curly Jack (1) as a win contender, even though he won the Iroquois Stakes in September at Churchill Downs and at the distance of this race, the reason is even if that effort is repeated, it doesn’t appears to be good enough to beat any of the top three. That’s because that effort earned a lowly 83 figure compared to 94 to 96 for the recent best efforts of Red Route One, Freedom Trail and Instant Coffee, and I don’t expect much improvement considering Curly Jack only earned an 88 figure when fifth of 10 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last month at Keeneland.

Win bets:

Looking at the odds of both Red Route One (5) and Instant Coffee (8) any time with about 15 minutes to post or so, I would bet the one at the highest odds to win provided those odds are 5 to 2 or higher.   

Exactas: Box Red Route One (5), Freedom Trail (6) and Instant Coffee (8).