Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | November 27, 2021

Race 11 at Churchill Downs | Saturday November 27 | Post Time 5:56 PM Eastern

Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes – Grade 2| Purse $400,000 | One Mile and One Sixteenth | Two Year Olds

Tiz the Bomb (6) sticks out on class and speed figures in this year’s Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, based on the field high 107 Equibase Speed Figure earned when closing sensationally for second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Stakes three weeks ago. Lagging back in 12^th after three quarters of a mile of the one mile race had been run, Tiz the Bomb passed 11 horses in the last quarter mile including seven in the last eighth of a mile to finish second in an unusual race in which winner Modern Games ran for purse money only. Prior to that, Tiz the Bomb won three races in a row including two stakes races. His only dirt route came before the stakes where in July Tiz the Bomb decimated the field by a 14 length margin. Since returning to Kentucky from California, Tiz the Bomb put in a strong workout on the Churchill Downs dirt main track which was the fourth best of 59 on the day for five-eighths of a mile, demonstrating he is holding top form. It must also be noted that in 2015 Airoforce finished second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf before his victory in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes which provides evidence moving from turf to dirt while dropping from a grade 1 to grade 2 stakes may be the ticket to Tiz the Bomb winning this race.

Howling Time (5) is another with history on his side. Winner of his maiden race in September, Howling Time stepped up in class last month to win the Street Sense Stakes over the track and at the distance of the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. The Street Sense was the same race the 2016 Kentucky Jockey Club winner McCracken ran in prior to winning, and in 2019 Silver Prospector finished third in the Street Sense before capturing this race. Although the 92 Equibase figure earned winning the Street Sense is much lower than the 107 figure Tiz the Bomb earned in his most recent race, it is on par with the 90 and 89 figures Tiz the Bomb earned winning two stakes races so if the likely favorite regresses to his previous form and Howling Time continues to run the same race, or improves, he has every right to win this race.

White Abarrio (10) ships up from Gulfstream Park in Florida off a strong four length win in the second start of his career, following a six length win in his debut in September. His 94 and 89 figure efforts are pretty strong and one win came while leading from start to finish while the other came from off the pace so this colt’s versatility could be an asset. Since White Abarrio is running in a stakes race for the first time, I used Race Lens to check the records of other foals of his sire, Race Day, who has just three crops of horses racing to date. Among that small group, only eight horses have run in dirt route stakes races, but four of those eight have won stakes similar to this race. As such, White Abarrio should be considered with a chance to succeed in this field.

We might be able to make some money in the exacta and trifecta if the two logical favorites don’t finish first and second by using Classic Causeway (1) and Red Knobs (9). Classic Causeway and Red Knobs both finished third in their most recent races, both stakes, with Classic Causeway third in the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland last month in only the second start and first route of his career. He gets the rail and Rosario and could be a strong contender for the minor awards down to the wire. Red Knobs finished third behind stablemate Howling Time in the Street Sense as both are trained by Dale Romans. Prior to that Red Knobs finished third in the Iroquois Stakes at the distance of the Kentucky Jockey Club and over the track. Both are likely to be relatively ignored by bettors compared to other horses in the field and that means if they can manage second or third we could make a nice profit.

Win bets:

Tiz the Bomb (6) at odds of 9 to 5 or higher.

Howling Time (5) at odds of 3 to 1 or higher.

White Abarrio (10) at odds of 7 to 2 or higher.

Note: Since it is possible Tiz the Bomb will go to post lower than those odds we can play some exactas using him in the win position and others in second for the same amount we might bet to win but with the goal of making a bigger profit than a win bet at low odds. Those exactas are:

 Tiz the Bomb (6) over Classic Causeway (1), Howling Time (5), Red Knobs (9) and White Abarrio (10).  

Other Exactas:

Howling Time (5) and Tiz the Bomb (6) over Classic Causeway (1), Howling Time (5), Tiz the Bomb (6), Red Knobs (9) and White Abarrio (10).  

Howling Time (5), Tiz the Bomb (6) and White Abarrio (10) over Classic Causeway (1), Howling Time (5), Tiz the Bomb (6), Red Knobs (9) and White Abarrio (10).  

Note: Although similar, note both tickets use Howling Time and Tiz the Bomb in the win position because they are likely to be lower odds so we want to win that exacta twice if possible.

Trifecta:

Tiz the Bomb (6) over Classic Causeway (1), Howling Time (5), Red Knobs (9) and White Abarrio (10) over ALL.

Note: At the $0.50 minimum and if all 14 run the total cost of this bet is $24. Certainly if Tiz the Bomb wins and Howling Time does finish second, we may not even get that back, but in the event one of the other two finishes second, or if a longshot finishes third, this bet could pay nicely