Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | November 28, 2020

Race 9 at Churchill Downs | Saturday November 28 | Post Time 4:57 PM Eastern

Golden Rod Stakes – Grade 2 | Purse $200,000 | One Mile and One Sixteenth | Fillies, Two Years Old

Simply Ravishing (8) is the one the rest have to beat to win, but she opens at even money. The filly won the first two races of her career including the Grade 1 Alcibiades at this distance at Keeneland before a fourth of seven finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies earlier this month. She was only beaten two noses for second in the Juvenile Fillies as the winner (Vequist) drew off by two lengths so it was a very good effort and if no other horse improves, perhaps markedly, Simply Ravishing is the likely winner. Still, there are two question marks in my opinion. The first is whether she may get into an early pace battle with one or more horses in this race, because when winning the Alcibiades she did so leading from start to finish. Even though she won the P.G. Johnson Stakes before that when stalking in second early, that was a one turn race. The second question also regards the Alcibiades, because the mile and one-sixteenth trip at Keeneland uses the first finish line and the short stretch run, whereas the stretch run at Churchill Downs is much longer, as a matter of fact one of the longest in North America (1234.5 feet).

With that in mind, for my win bet and some other exacta tickets I’m looking at Princess Theorem (9), who opens at 10/1. This filly not only won at the distance but did so here at Churchill Downs, in her last start on 10/30. She had finished third in her debut on turf then won easily by almost four lengths last out. This filly is bred to be a very good two-turn horse, as the dam produced Lady Kate ($386K) and Prince of Arabia ($265K), both two turn winners, the former a multiple stakes winner and the latter stakes placed. With John Velazquez in to ride and having shown a lot of maturity in stalking from third into slow fractions last time out, Princess Theorem is on a pattern to potentially post the upset here.

Coach (3), Travel Column (5), Clairiere (6) and Lady Traveler (7) will all be used on some tickets in second and third as all have run decently enough recently but I think they’re a cut below the top two.

Win betting strategy:

Princess Theorem (9) to win at odds of 5/2 or more.

Exacta as a win bet: Simply Ravishing (8) over Coach (3), Travel Column (5), Clairiere (6), Lady Traveler (7) and Princess Theorem (9).

Exactas:

Simply Ravishing (8) and Princess Theorem (9) over Coach (3), Travel Column (5), Clairiere (6), Lady Traveler (7), Simply Ravishing (8) and Princess Theorem (9).