Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | November 6, 2021

Race 3 at Del Mar | Saturday November 6 | Post Time 2:25 PM Eastern

Goldikova Stakes – Grade 2 | Purse $300,000 | One Mile on Turf | Fillies and Mares, Three Years Old and Upward          

Top Contenders:

Zofelle (1) has faced some of the top horse in the division this year, such as Blowout and Got Stormy, both who are running against males in the Breeders’ Cup Mile later today. She ran very well in the Grade 2 Distaff Turf Mile this past May, coming up just a half-length short of Blowout, and she was just a nose from Got Stormy right before that in the Honey Fox Stakes, both at this mile turf trip. She ran poorly after that in the Grade 1 Just a Game, which led to the layoff she’s coming back from today. However, considering she won the Marshua’s River Stakes off a similar layoff and was coming back from a layoff when close to Blowout, we can ignore that last effort and consider the other two representative of what she’s capable of fresh. As such, opening at 6 to 1 and getting the rail, Zofelle gets top billing.

Princess Grace (2) has been nearly perfect in her career, with a 6-1-0 record in seven races, all on grass. She won the similar Grade 2 Yellow Ribbon Stakes this past summer in her only try at Del Mar and she just won a the Ladies Turf on the up-and-down, right-handed and left-handed tough course at Kentucky Downs. Although not a good win bet as she opens at 8 to 5, Princess Grace does figure prominently here.

Warren’s Showtime (8) does have a few races among her 22 race career which could help her to run better than her 12/1 starting odds suggest she will. She won the similar Autumn Miss Stakes 13 months ago with a big late kick and she enters the race off a win in a turf sprint. Hernandez was up for her last two wins and rides back, with one of those wins also coming in a graded stakes at a mile like this one.

Going Global (7) has won five of six since importing to the U.S. from Ireland, including the Del Mar Oaks when last seen in August. This three year old filly faces older for the first time and that may not be an issue but in spite of having won or placed in all six U.S. races, Going Global’s last three Equibase figures of 104, 103 and 102 are not dominant and fall short of the 116 and 105 Princess Grace earned in her two most recent races, and to the 110 and 114 figures Zofelle earned in the Marshua’s River and Honey Fox. Therefore for the most part I’m taking a stand against her and certainly hoping one of the contenders at higher odds runs as expected. 

Win Bets:

Zofelle (1) to win at odds of 3 to 1 or more.

I would also consider a win bet on Warren’s Showtime (8) at odds of 5 to 1 or higher. Considering her starting odds are 12/1 it is likely she will offer excellent reward for the risk as well.

Exactas (two separate wagers):

Note the strategies below not only add Bodhicitta (6) but also attempt to separate the two betting favorites (Princess Grace and Going Global), as the combination between the two favorites would be the lowest paying exacta combination in the race. This wager also tries to maximize profit if we win, particularly if Zofelle (1) and Warren’s Showtime (8) finish first and second, because then we win the exacta twice.

Zofelle (1) and Warren’s Showtime (8) over Zofelle (1), Warren’s Showtime (8), Princess Grace (2), Going Global (7) and Bodhicitta (6).

Zofelle (1), Warren’s Showtime (8), Princess Grace (2), Going Global (7) and Bodhicitta (6) over Zofelle (1) and Warren’s Showtime (8)