Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | November 7, 2020

Race 12 at Keeneland | Saturday November 7 | Post Time 5:18 PM Eastern

Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic | Purse $6 Million | One Mile and One Quarter | Three Year Olds and Upward

Even with the fantastic depth in this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic, I think Improbable (8) and Tom’s d’Etat (4) are the ones to beat and have the bulk of the probability to win. This assessment is based on not only how fast they’ve run, but their attitude about winning.

Top Two:

Tom’s d’Etat (4) won two graded stakes to close out his 2019 campaign including the Hagyard Fayette Stakes last fall at Keeneland  That effort earned a 116 Equibase Speed Figure, the second best he had earned to that point in his career, with the best being 118 in the Alydar Stakes two months earlier. In his 2020 debut in April and even after five months off, Tom’s d’Etat rallied from eighth to win the Oaklawn Mile Stakes over Improbable by three-quarters of a length with a 113 figure. In the Oaklawn Mile, Improbable had opened up a two length lead in the stretch and appeared to have victory in hand but Tom’s d’Etat gained ground with every stride to win going away. Two months later Tom’s d’Etat won the Clark Stakes with a 116 figure and was on a pattern for significant improvement before a bad stumble at the start of the Whitney Stakes in August, resulting in a third place finish. Still, Tom’s d’Etat improved to a 117 figure in the Whitney, quite impressive in my opinion. Whitney winner Improbable came right back to win the Awesome Again Stakes and runner-up By My Standards won the Alysheba Stakes, both flattering Tom’s d’Etat. Particularly as Tom’s d’Etat has relished returning off similar layoffs in the past, I think he can run just as he did in the Oaklawn Mile and post the mild upset in this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic.

Improbable (8) has become a different, better, horse since the addition of blinkers before last summer’s Shared Belief Stakes. Going into that race, Improbable had won three of seven races but his two just prior to the Shared Belief were poor efforts when fifth in the Kentucky Derby and sixth in the Preakness Stakes. Since then, Improbable has won four of seven, but it’s his most recent three efforts which were the most impressive. After returning from five months off and being defeated by Tom’s d’Etat in the Oaklawn Mile Stakes, Improbable won the Gold Cup at Santa Anita in June (at the distance of the Classic) with a 116 figure, which was the second best of his career. Following up with wins in the Whitney and in the Awesome Again, both with career-best 120 figures, Improbable enters the Classic in the best form of his life. As impressive is the authoritative way in which Improbable has run in his last three races, each time opening up by many lengths with an eighth of a mile to go and holding that advantage to the wire while unchallenged. Granted, in the Oaklawn Mile he had opened up as well and was run down by Tom’s d’Etat in the stretch but since then no other horse has worried Improbable in the late stages. Therefore if Tom’s d’Etat can’t repeat what he did in the Oaklawn Mile, Improbable is very likely to have a commanding lead early in the stretch and win his fourth straight grade 1 race.

About the rest: Lines of separation between most of the other eight contenders in this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic are thin, but the line separating them from the top two contenders is not thin in my opinion. I’ll take them in alphabetical order, starting with Authentic (9), whose results on the track match his name with five wins and two runner-up efforts in seven starts. Two of those came at, or very close to, this Classic distance, in the Kentucky Derby and in the Preakness Stakes. Authentic ran valiantly in both, winning the former and coming up a neck shy of Swiss Skydiver in the latter. However, he did not improve in terms of his speed figures, with both efforts resulting in 109 figures, the same as he earned winning the Haskell Stakes in July. I’m just not enamored with this pattern, particularly as I would expect a three year old to continue to improve in the fall. He’s a very talented horse but in my opinion he’s no match for either Improbable or Tom’s d’Etat at this stage.

The same can be said for By My Standards (3), who has won four of six this year and finished second in the two others. Those two runner-up efforts came behind Improbable in the Whitney and behind Tom’s d’Etat in the Foster. Although the figures earned in those races, 118 and 110, respectively, were better than the 109 figures Authentic earned in his last three races, I don’t see By My Standards turning the tables on either Improbable or Tom’s d’Etat in the Classic.

Global Campaign (7) earned back-to-back 109 figures in the Monmouth Cup and in the Woodward Handicap and although the latter came at the distance of the Classic I don’t see him moving up to the level needed to win. Additionally, Global Campaign won both races leading from start to finish with the exception that he was second with an eighth of a mile to go in the Monmouth Cup. In this year’s Classic that “early” running style is shared by Authentic and possibly By My Standards as well as Maximum Security.

Maximum Security (10) was no match for Improbable in the Awesome Again, and when winning the Pacific Classic Stakes and San Diego Handicap prior to that faced competition which, for the most part, would be overmatched in this race. He did earn a 118 figure in the Pacific Classic but 107 in the San Diego and the 113 he earned in the Awesome Again was more of a function how fast Improbable ran than the effort Maximum Security put forth. There’s no doubt Maximum Security is one of the best horses in the country at this level, but perhaps not the best in this field.

Tiz the Law (2) would be a top contender in this year’s Classic if not for the fact that it appears he peaked when winning the Travers Stakes in August. After winning four straight graded stakes from February through August, with a strong pattern of improving figures (112, 113 and 115) through the Travers, Tiz the Law not only could not pass Authentic in the stretch in the Kentucky Derby, his 107 figure suggests he was not as fast in September as he was earlier in the year. Still, he’s another horse in this year’s Classic with no real knocks, winning six of eight races in his career and earning $2.6 million.

Tacitus (1) (110 best figure) has run evenly in his last two races with 107 and 105 figures and doesn’t appear as fast, or to have as much will to win, as many of the others. Higher Power (6) earned a 113 figure winning the 2019 Pacific Classic but hasn’t shown the same ability since and particularly as he has been beaten three to six lengths in his last three races, twice by Maximum Security, he appears a bit over his head here. Title Ready (5) earned a career-best 114 figure in the Stymie Stakes when second 19 months ago and has one allowance win to his credit since. He’s never run the Classic distance so far in his career.

Betting Strategies-

Everyone wants to know how to bet this race, or at least how I plan to bet this race. There are two tiers of contenders in the race, the first consisting of the two win contenders, and the next consisting of the other main contenders, who have a very slight chance to win and a decent shot to be second or third - #2 Tiz the Law, #3 By My Standards, #7 Global Campaign, #9 Authentic and #10 Maximum Security.

However, since I’ve included five of the other eight, I’d feel pretty bad if one of the other three - #1 Tacitus, #5 Title Ready and #6 Higher Power, finished in the trifecta and I was too cheap to include them, particularly as I think there’s a chance Maximum Security (7/2) and/or Tiz the Law (3/1) aren’t in the top two.

Win Bets: Tom’s d’ Etat (4) and/or Improbable (8) at odds of 2 to 1 or more.

My exotic plays are as follows:

Exacta: 4, 8 over 2, 3, 4, 7, 8, 9, 10

#2 is Tiz the Law, #3 is By My Standards, #7 is Global Campaign, #9 is Authentic and #10 is Maximum Security.

Trifectas:

4, 8 over 2, 3, 4, 7, 8, 9, 10 over ALL

4, 8 over 2, 3, 7, 8, 9, 10 over 4, 8

4, 8 over 4, 8 over ALL