Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | October 10, 2020

Race 8 at Keeneland | Saturday October 10 | Post Time 4:57 PM Eastern

Hagyard Fayette Stakes – Grade 2 | Purse $200,000 | One Mile and One Eighth | Three Year Olds and Upward

Crafty Daddy (3) and Captivating Moon (2) both come out of the highly rated Opening Verse Stakes run September 3 at Churchill Downs. Both ran their eyeballs out in that race, battling head and head for the last eighth of a mile, with Crafty Daddy prevailing by a head in the photo, with it being another five lengths back to the third horse. There are reasons to expect BOTH to run as well or better in the Hagyard Fayette Stakes. Crafty Daddy was making his second start after being off for 11 months in that race as well as his second start since moving to the Ken McPeek barn. The Opening Verse was scheduled for turf but run on the main track, and Crafty Daddy had only run on dirt once before, in his career debut back in December of 2018 (finishing fourth of 11). Nevertheless, this well bred son of Scat Daddy moved up markedly off his sixth place comeback effort and even better should be expected today, particularly as McPeek has an above average record of winning back-to-back dirt routes in the past two years with a+59% return on investment on win bets. Last but not least, there’s no concern about the nine furlong trip as Crafty Daddy has won at the distance (on turf).

Still, Captivating Moon (2) gets co-top billing here based on that last effort, which came following four months on the sidelines. Leparoux rode him that day and rides back to go along with logical improvement second off the layoff is the fact the hors finished second in the Grade 2 New Orleans Handicap in March at this nine furlong trip on dirt to one of the top horses in the division, By My Standards. Captivating Moon does come from farther back, actually much farther back, than Crafty Daddy, but there are only six horses to pass late and with Mr Freeze (6) and Coastal Defense (1) both having decent early speed he should have targets to run at although it does appear Crafty Daddy may get first run on the pacesetters.

Aurelius Maximus (10) is the most lightly raced horse in the field with six starts but has won three times, twice in a row on both sides of a layoff form January until September. The win last month was a good prep for this race and he’s a half-brother to a number of dirt route winners and has A.P. Indy as his damsire so I’m not concerned about his taking to the nine furlong trip he’s running for the first time.

Betting Strategies-

Win: Crafty Daddy (3) to win at odds of 9 to 5 odds or higher.

Captivating Moon (2) can also be considered for a win bet at 2 to 1 odds or higher.

Aurelius Maximus (10) might be worth a bet to win at 3 to 1 or more.

Exactas:

 Box Captivating Moon (2), Crafty Daddy (3) and Aurelius Maximus (10).

Trifectas (two plays):

Captivating Moon (2), Crafty Daddy (3) and Aurelius Maximus (10) over Captivating Moon (2), Crafty Daddy (3) and Aurelius Maximus (10) over Coastal Defense (1), Captivating Moon (2), Crafty Daddy (3), Mo Mosa (9) and Aurelius Maximus (10).

Captivating Moon (2), Crafty Daddy (3) and Aurelius Maximus (10) over Coastal Defense (1), Captivating Moon (2), Crafty Daddy (3), Mo Mosa (9) and Aurelius Maximus (10) over Captivating Moon (2), Crafty Daddy (3) and Aurelius Maximus (10).

Join myself and Christina Blacker on “Keeneland at Home” every Friday, Saturday and Sunday at 12:15 eastern time during the fall meeting. Click here for information on how to watch Keeneland at Home