Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | October 15, 2022

Race 7 at Keeneland | Saturday October 15 | Post Time 4:12 PM Eastern

Purse $100,000 | One Mile on Turf | Maiden’s Two Years Old

Analysis and win contenders:

Giovannino (12) is one of many horses in this deep maiden field with prospects for a bright future and who cost a pretty penny at auction, in his case $200,000 13 months ago at Keeneland. He is bred to be a top runner as he’s by red hot sire Into Mischief out of an Indian Charlie mare who has had three other foals race going long on grass, with all three winning at this maiden allowance level, including one first time out. Giovannino tried two turns on turf first time out just 24 days ago in Indiana and ran creditably when rallying from second to last to get fourth at the end. Now he has two-turn and turf experience most of the field lacks, so with a jockey change to Florent Geroux (currently seventh among all jockeys in North America in 2022), and with a lot of improvement to show us off the experience of a race, this colt may post the mild upset, opening at 6 to 1.

Six Missions (7) debuted on turf in a short sprint (five and one-half furlongs) in July and ran very well when making up six lengths in the last three-eighths of a mile to get second. Sent to post as the favorite on September 3 in a 12 horse field at Kentucky Downs, he didn’t run well at all, checking in ninth of 12. However, he gets a jockey change to Flavien Prat, who is one of the top percentage jockey in turf routes in North America with a 26% win rate (91 from 353 mounts) in the past 12 months, and if the colt improves off his debut he certainly can earn his first career win today, making us a profit if we bet on him as he opens at 9 to 2 odds. 

Ashcroft (11) opens as the 3 to 1 favorite and that might hold up as he comes from the strong barn of Wesley Ward, winning at a 25% clip on the year, even better at 31% when Ward uses North American leading jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. as he’s doing here. The colt made one start, six months ago at Keeneland, and on dirt, checking in fifth of seven. He was not favored that day which is unusual for a two year old first time starter from this barn at Keeneland, suggesting many bettors knew he would run his best races at longer distances an on turf. To that point, his dam has produced only one other runner, who like Ashcroft ran poorly in dirt first time out. When moving to turf and two-turns second time out it was a different story as the horse won nicely and that is possible for Ashcroft as well in this situation. That being said, he is coming back from six months off and Giovannino as well as Six Missions ran just last month.

Others with a shot, mostly for second, in this deep field, #4 Worthington and #14 Miranda Rights, who just finished third and second, respectively, when separated by a head in the same seven furlong turf race at Kentucky Downs last month.

Win bets:

Consider win bets on both Giovannino (12) and Six Missions (7) at odds of 3 to 1 or higher.

Exactas:

Box Giovannino (12), Six Missions (7) and Ashcroft (11).

Giovannino (12), Six Missions (7) and Ashcroft (11) over Giovannino (12), Six Missions (7), Ashcroft (11), Worthington (4) and Miranda Rights (14).