Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | October 16, 2021

Race 8 at Keeneland | Saturday October 16 | Post Time 4:44 PM Eastern

Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes presented by Dixiana – Grade 1 | Purse $500,000 | One Mile and One Eighth on Turf | Fillies, Three Years Old

Empress Josephine (4) has the best credentials in the field and one of the best Equibase Speed Figure earned by any filly in this group, a 113 when third last week in the First Lady Stakes at a shorter distance on the Keeneland Turf. In that race Empress Josephine raced mid-pack in sixth of 12 in the early stages and steadily made up ground to finish third, just a half-length from the runner-up, with the winner another half-length in front. She had just run four weeks earlier in Ireland when fourth of 13, beaten a head for second, in the very important Group 1 Matron Stakes. That effort earned a 115 figure and she had earned a 114 figure in May when winning the Irish 1000 Guineas. No other horse in the field, except Nicest , has broken through the 110 figure threshold so considering Empress Josephine has done it three times this season, she appears to be the one to beat. As a daughter of amazing sire Galileo, Empress Josephine should appreciate the extra eighth of a mile and she adds blinkers as well, likely suggested by top jockey John Velazquez, who returns to ride after being aboard last weekend. There’s also no concern about the filly returning so quickly because her trainer is one of the best in the world in Aiden O’Brien, who according to a Race Lens query has only run two horses back on a week’s rest in the past five years. One of those was Athena, who won the 2018 Belmont Oaks easily off a similarly short respite. Even more significant is the fact that Together , who was a daughter of Galileo and who was trained by O’Brien, finished second in the 2011 First Lady Stakes then went on to win the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup one week later.

Flippant (8) may be a live longshot candidate although she has won three races in a row, two of those stakes races. Flippant won the Preview Dueling Grounds Oaks Stakes in August with a 98 Equibase Speed Figure then improved to 100 at the end of August when victorious in the Virginia Oaks at the same nine furlong trip of the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup. In the Virginia Oaks, Flippant put in a furious rally from 11^th with a quarter mile to go and was never really asked as she lengthened her stride to win going away. The 100 figure earned is a far cry from any of the three best figures Empress Josephine has earned but Flippant has the pattern to improve, and the breeding to run very well. The Race Lens report on her dam, Frivolous, shows that mare won the Grade 1 Fleur de Lis Stakes at this distance on dirt as well as won on turf, and the report on her sire Tapit shows me his daughter Time and Motion won the 2016 edition of the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup so there is a lot of potential for this filly to run well.

Cloudy Dawn (9) and Nicest (5) are both talented fillies who have faced some tough competition in Europe and who could both have a say in the outcome of this race. Cloudy Dawn just won a group three stakes in Europe, the equivalent of a grade two stakes in North American, and she was flattered when the runner-up came back to win her next race. Trainer William Haggas hasn’t started many horses in North America in the past few years but one of them was Call to Mind, owned by Her Majesty the Queen, who shipped in to win the 2018 Belmont Gold Cup. Nicest  has been facing top company just like Empress Josephine and that alone warrants consideration as a contender. She finished third of 13 in the Ribblesdale Stakes in June at Royal Ascot and followed that up with a third place finish behind top European three year old Snowfall in the Irish Oaks in mid-July. That last effort earned a 116 Equibase Figure and if she can repeat or improve off that effort nearly three months later she could certainly be in the thick of the action at the wire in this race.

Win bets:

Empress Josephine (4) can be bet to win at odds of 2 to 1 or higher.

Flippant (8) can be bet to win at odds of 4 to 1 or higher, but for a smaller amount as compared to Empress Josephine.

Exactas: (Two possible wagers)

Empress Josephine (4) over Nicest (5), Flippant (8) and Cloudy Dawn (9) (At the $1 minimum the cost of this bet is $3)

Empress Josephine (4) over ALL (If all 10 run the cost of this bet at the $1 minimum is $9)

Trifecta:  (Two possible wagers)

Empress Josephine (4) over Nicest (5), Flippant (8) and Cloudy Dawn (9) over ALL (At the $0.50 minimum level the cost of this bet is $12)

Empress Josephine (4) over ALL over Nicest (5), Flippant (8) and Cloudy Dawn (9) ((At the $0.50 minimum level the cost of this bet is $12)

Note: If you play both trifecta tickets and if Empress Josephine wins and two of the other three finish second and third, you win both bets.