Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | October 17, 2020

Race 8 at Keeneland | Saturday October 17 | Post Time 4:57 PM Eastern

Allowance | Purse $75,000 | One Mile and One Eighth on Turf | Three Year Olds and Upward

Midnight Tea Time (4) has won at this mile and one-eighth distance on turf and on dirt at Keeneland, which experience may give him an edge. He enters the race off two “A” efforts including a second place finish in a field of 10 in the $300K Tapit Stakes last time and second, beaten a neck, at this allowance level prior to that. It appears repeating either of those two efforts, or his prior win at Keeneland, give him a slight edge in this race.

Temple (10) finished sixth in the Tapit Stakes and behind Midnight Tea Time but nearly won a stakes race before that. Just like Midnight Tea Time, Temple ran big the last time raced in an allowance race, at this mile and one-eighth distance on grass. He also has positive experience over the course, having finished second, beaten a neck, in his only start previously on the Keeneland turf.

Apreciado (11) won one year ago at this distance on the turf at Keeneland at the one lower NW2X allowance level. He’s been racing almost exclusively in stakes races since and enters off a fine runner-up effort last month so the change in company could be enough to get him back into the winner’s circle.

Hierarchy (9) is yet another who drops in class from stakes. He won three races ago at this distance on turf in an allowance race. It must be noted he comes from far back so will need racing luck but rallied from 11^th to second in only start at Keeneland.

Spirit Animal (14) must be respected if draws in from the also-eligible list (if one or more horses withdraw) as he has won three of his last four and lost by a head in the other race. He has the best last race Equibase Speed Figure in the field and his outside post won’t compromise his chances as he’s a closer.

Betting Strategies-

Consider WIN bets on two of these horses at or above the minimum odds listed. The recommendation is to be the two horses which have the HIGHEST odds among the group;

Midnight Tea Time (4) – 7 to 2

Temple (10) – 7 to 2

Apreciado (11) - 9 to 2

Hierarchy (9) – 9 to 2

(Note: The reason Spirit Animal (14) isn’t listed above is there is little chance he will be 7 to 2 or higher at post time given he went to post at 3 to 5 in his most recent race)

Exactas: Box 4, 9, 10, 11, 14

Optionally, play the same five horses in a Trifecta box.

Doubles to race 9 - the Lexus Raven Run Stakes. You can get my analysis for that race on the Keeneland web site here

Race 8: 4, 9, 10, 11, 14

Race 9: 2, 6, 10 (#2 is Four Graces, #6 is Reagan’s Edge, #10 is Secret Keeper)

Join myself and Christina Blacker on “Keeneland at Home” every Friday, Saturday and Sunday at 12:15 eastern time during the fall meeting. Click here for information on how to watch Keeneland at Home