Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | October 22, 2022

Race 9 at Keeneland | Saturday October 22 | Post Time 5:16 PM Eastern

Lexus Raven Run Stakes – Grade 2 | Purse $350,000 | Seven Furlongs | Fillies, Three Years Old

Analysis and win contenders:

Fingal’s Cave (5) is undefeated in four starts, at distances ranging from six furlongs to one mile and one-eighth. Although a New York bred, the filly beat open (not restricted to state bred) company one race before last with a strong 97 Equibase Speed Figure, which she duplicated winning the Fleet Indian Stakes in her most recent race. Right before leaving her home base in New York, Fingal’s Cave put in a very strong five eighths of a mile workout in 59.2 which was the best of 42 on the day at the distance, signaling she is in tip-top condition. She led from start to finish in one of her winning efforts and came from off the pace in the other three so no matter the pace scenario in this year’s Lexus Raven Run Stakes she can handle it. She cuts back from nine furlongs to seven, which is also in her favor as it should give her some extra stamina in the late stages and she won her only race at this distance by nine lengths in June. From her last race, the only two horses to have run since have won, signaling that to be a “KEY RACE” due to its productive nature and all those factors combined make Fingal’s Cave the one to beat in this race.

Freedom Speaks (7) has three wins and one runner-up effort in four starts so is almost as accomplished at Fingal’s Cave. She’s won on turf and all-weather and her only defeat came on dirt BUT it was a big effort when second to Last Leaf (4) this past June in the Game Face Stakes in Florida. Since then, Freedom Speaks has improved markedly, first when winning a tough turf race at Saratoga in August with a 98 Equibase Speed Figure then improving to a career-best 105 figure when victorious among 12 horses last month in the Music City Stakes at Kentucky Downs. That race also turned out to be a “KEY RACE” with the third and fourth finishers winning their next starts and the runner-up returning for a second place effort. As such, Freedom Speaks deserves strong consideration as a contender.

Wicked Halo (8) rounds out a trio of top fillies in a field of very good female sprinters, with a five for eight career record including a win in the biggest last race among the group, the Grade 2 Prioress Stakes last month at Saratoga. That was her third straight win, all in stakes, with one of those coming in the Leslie’s Lady Stakes in June at this seven furlong trip. In the Prioress, which earned Wicked Halo a career-best 96 figure, she relaxed in fifth of eight early and moved into position entering the stretch, then showed her fortitude by battling head and head down to the wire before prevailing by a neck.   

Win bets:

First, we should consider Fingal’s Cave (5) to win at odds of 3 to 2 or higher. Although she may be the favorite, she still may be a “low odds overlay” which means her odds are still higher than they should be based on her perceived probability to win.

Freedom Speaks (7) can be considered for a win bet at odds of 9 to 5 or higher. Wicked Halo (8) can be considered for a win bet at 3 to 1 or more.

Exactas:

Fingal’s Cave (5) over ALL. At the $1 minimum this bet has a cost of $8 and we win if Freedom Speaks wins no matter which horse finishes second, hoping for a long shot.

Fingal’s Cave (5) over Freedom Speaks (7) and Wicked Halo (8).

Box Fingal’s Cave (5), Freedom Speaks (7) and Wicked Halo (8).