Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | October 23, 2021

Race 9 at Keeneland | Saturday October 23 | Post Time 5:16 PM Eastern

Lexus Raven Run Stakes – Grade 2 | Purse $250,000 | Seven Furlongs | Fillies, Three Years Old      

Miss Speedy (11) will be my top pick to win this year’s Lexus Raven Run Stakes as she appears to be the most probable based on her very strong effort last month in the Duchess Stakes at Woodbine. Although Miss Speedy had won the first two starts of her career, after a poorer fourth place effort in the Bison City Stakes in August, trainer Mark Casse took blinkers off the filly and that resulted in her leading from start to finish while giving no other horse a chance to catch her. Having earned a 91 Equibase Speed Figure two races before that, then improving to 95 and then to 98 with the removal of blinkers for her win in the Duchess Stakes, Miss Speedy was then flattered when the runner-up (Aug Lutes) came back to beat a strong field in the Glen Cove Stakes at Belmont Park last week, improving to a 102 figure. Since all four of her races to date were on all-weather, trainer Mark Casse made it a point to ship the filly to Kentucky last month where she worked out twice on conventional dirt like the course she’s going to run over in the Raven Run, and she brings along jockey Rafael Hernandez, who rode her to victory in the Duchess. In this year’s Raven Run field, although it may appear there are other “early” speed types, Miss Speedy not only appears faster than they are, but in her last race she actually showed a late kick as her middle pace figure was 84 whereas her final figure was 98. This suggests that no matter the pace scenario, Miss Speedy may be able to repeat the feat of another filly trained by Mark Casse three years ago when Shamrock Rose shipped down from Woodbine off a win to take the Raven Run Stakes.

Obligatory (13) won the Eight Belles Stakes at the distance of the Raven Run back in April then nearly won the tougher Acorn Stakes in June, closing from four and one-half lengths back with an eighth of a mile to go to come up just a half-length shy of winner Search Results. After a fifth place finish in the Test Stakes, mostly owing to losing her footing at the start and getting away last of eight, Obligatory returned to good form when second last month in the $1 million Cotillion, tying her previous best 105 figure with that effort. Cutting back in distance from one mile and one-sixteenth to this seven furlong trip, the same as the Eight Belles, Obligatory certainly has a shot to run well and could catch Miss Speedy if that filly can’t lead from start to finish.

After finishing second in her first three starts on dirt and third in a turf race to start her career, Caramel Swirl (8) earned her first career win, in her fifth career start, at Keeneland this past spring and did so with aplomb, winning by 10 lengths. She completely regressed when seventh behind Obligatory in the Eight Belles, but then rebounded to win with something left at this distance and beat older fillies and mares at Saratoga in July. That effort earned her a career best 98 figure, but then the regressed again and only managed fourth in the Charles Town Oaks at the end of August. However, it must be noted that seven furlong distance at Charles Town is contested around two turns, so on the cut back to one turn and to the distance of her strong effort in July, Caramel Swirl could run much better.

Both Cilla (3) and Souper Sensational (7) deserve honorable mention. Cilla won the Prioress Stakes in September for her third stakes win in a row but after earning 99 and 95 figures in her two races prior to that regressed further to a 91 figure effort so may be a cut below the best in this race. Souper Sensational earned a 105 figure winning the Victory Ride Stakes in July then ran even faster when second in the Test Stakes when earning a career-best 105 figure in August before settling for second after leading in the stretch behind Cilla in the Prioress Stakes last month.

Win Bets: Miss Speedy (11) should be bet at odds of 9 to 5 or higher.

Exactas: Miss Speedy (11) over Souper Sensational (3), Cilla (7), Caramel Swirl (8) and Obligatory (13).

Trifectas: Miss Speedy (11) over Souper Sensational (3), Cilla (7), Caramel Swirl (8) and Obligatory (13) over Souper Sensational (3), Cilla (7), Caramel Swirl (8) and Obligatory (13)