Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | October 29, 2022

Race 8 at Keeneland | Saturday October 29 | Post Time 4:44 PM Eastern

Bryan Station Stakes – Grade 3 | Purse $300,000 | One Mile on Turf | Three Year Olds

Analysis and win contenders:

Balnikhov (2) has a strong and consistent career record of 4-3-2 in 10 career races, many of those in Europe before importing to the U.S. this past April. He finished second in a pair of stakes races in his first two local starts, then two races later won the Del Mar (California) opening day featured Oceanside Stakes at this one mile trip on turf. In his only start since then, Balnikhov was in a very tough field in the Del Mar Derby, won by a horse which controlled the pace from start to finish on slow fractions, making it difficult for ANY other horse to finish fast. Nevertheless, he went from eighth to fourth and was just a neck behind the third finisher. In this race, Classic Causeway may or may not be the only horse which wants the early lead, but even so the pace will be honest and that provides Balnikhov with a big chance to run the way he did when winning the Oceanside Stakes.

Ready to Purrform (1) has a very similar story to Balnikhov, as he won the Grade 2 Hall of Fame Stakes at Saratoga in August then finished sixth in the Dueling Grounds Derby last month. He got a very poor outside (11) post position in that race but today with the rail jockey Joel Rosario should be able to either put him on the lead from the start, or put him in position behind Classic Causeway where he can pressure that leader and go by in the late stages.

Wit (8) was second behind Ready to Purrform in the Hall of Fame Stakes this summer, then won the Better Talk Now Stakes at the end of August, a race nearly identical in class to the Oceanside Stakes won by Balnikhov. Wit has now won four of eight races and his best efforts are good enough to win here if repeated, but he will have some tough competition which is as good and as fast as he is.

In addition to the three win contenders above, there are three other horses that can be part of the exacta or trifecta by finishing second or third. Those are likely early leader Classic Causeway (5), Double Clutch (7) and Churchtown (15). 

Win bets: Balnikhov (2) and Ready to Purrform (1) should both be considered for win bets at odds of 5 to 2 or higher.

Exactas:

Ready to Purrform (1). Balnikhov (2) and Wit (8) over Ready to Purrform (1). Balnikhov (2), Wit (8), Classic Causeway (5), Double Clutch (7) and Churchtown (15).