Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | October 3, 2020

Race 10 at Keeneland | Saturday October 3 | Post Time 5:57 PM Eastern

Shadwell Turf Mile – Grade 1 | Purse $750,000 | One Mile on Turf | Three Year Olds and Upward

Halladay (2) is in ultra-sharp form with three wins in last four races, all leading start to finish under Luis Saez. He has inside position to get the lead he likes once again and he’s been very consistent with winning Equibase speed figures of 114, 115 and 115 in his last three wins. Saez was up for the win and rides back. Saez also rode 2015 winner Grand Arch out of similar win the Fourstardave Handicap at Saratoga.

Flavius (7) won the Tourist Mile Stakes at Kentucky Downs comfortably with 115 Equibase Speed Figure. Although not graded, the Tourist Mile carried a $750K purse so is on par with this race. The Tourist Mile was his second start after six months off so he could run even better and add to Brown’s 33% back-to-back win rate in stakes over the last five years. Flavius is by War Front, as is Halladay, the sire with the most progeny wins at a mile in graded stakes of any sire in the field the past five years.

Ivar (11) has the look of a contender at high odds based on pattern of improvement since importing to the U.S. He was third behind Flavius last out and can improve and has some quality to him as he won all three starts in Argentina powerfully including two Group 1 stakes at a mile.

Raging Bull (6) suffered a very tough defeat by a nose and a neck in the Maker’s Mark Mile in July and won the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile in California prior to that so fits on all counts. He earned back to back 114 figures which fit with the top contenders here and he shows a very interesting Blinkers Off/Fast Workout pattern with a second best of 23 half-mile on 9/27 which suggests the change in equipment may help him get back to grade 1 winning form.

Betting Strategies-

Win: Halladay (2) to win at odds of 2 to 1 or higher.

Flavius (7) can also be considered for a win bet at 2 to 1 odds or higher.

Ivar (11) is worth a small win bet at odds of 5 to 1 or more.  

Exactas (three plays):

Halladay (2) and Flavius (7) over Halladay (2), Flavius (7), Raging Bull (6) and Ivar (11).

Halladay (2), Flavius (7), Raging Bull (6) and Ivar (11) over Halladay (2) and Flavius (7).

Box Halladay (2), Flavius (7), Raging Bull (6) and Ivar (11).

Trifecta:

Box Halladay (2), Flavius (7), Raging Bull (6) and Ivar (11).

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