Keeneland Select Pick of The Day | October 30, 2021

Race 9 at Keeneland | Saturday October 30 | Post Time 5:16 PM Eastern

Hagyard Fayette Stakes – Grade 2 | Purse $200,000 | One Mile and One Eighth | Three Year Olds and Upward           

King Fury (6) is a three year old facing older for the first time in his career but considering this is the fall of his three year old year, where three year olds at the top level for dirt horses do very well, for example in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (coming up next weekend), that is no concern. The colt has had a number of ups-and-downs in his career, having been sidelined from last November until this past April after winning an important stakes race as a two year old nearly one year ago this week. Returning from that long layoff this spring, King Fury won the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland powerfully and was set to run in the Kentucky Derby but was scratched on Derby week due to an elevated white blood cell count suggesting an infection. After getting better King Fury was entered to run in the Preakness yet again was not 100% and missed the race. Having no other options early this summer he was entered on turf and ran 10^th, then not yet fully back to his old form finished fifth in the Travers Stakes. Next, a huge turnaround took place in his most recent start on September 25 in the Bourbon Trail Stakes, a non-graded race but one with a strong $275,000 purse and run at a mile and three-sixteenths, so nearly identical to the Hagyard Fayette Stakes. In that race King Fury started fifth of seven and drew off powerfully to win by 13 lengths. There was gas in the tank following that win and considering the effort earned a 109 Equibase Speed Figure, comparable to the 113 figure Sleepy Eyes Todd earned when second in the Charles Town Classic in his most recent race and Code of Honor earned when fourth in the Woodward Stakes in his most recent race, there is little doubt King Fury fits with the best in this field. Better still, as a three year old he hasn’t peaked yet and therefore opening at 9 to 2 is the one to beat and the one to bet (to win).

Similarly, Night Ops (4), who starts at 6 to 1 odds, should be considered as well. Although his career record of 6-7-4 in 25 races isn’t a strong in terms of wins as King Fury’s 4-1-0 record in 10 races. In many of those runner-up efforts, Night Ops was second best to horses who might be heavily favored here, such as Breeders’ Cup Classic bound Art Collector in the Alydar Stakes (at this distance) in August, with Art Collector winning the Charles Town Classic in his next start. Night Ops also ran very well at Keeneland in the Ben Ali Stakes, the spring equivalent of the Hagyard Fayette Stakes, where he was beaten just a half-length at the finish after rallying from fourth. Having earned a 108 figure in the Alydar as well as a 109 figure last year in the Cornhusker Stakes at this distance, Night Ops must be considered strongly here as he is likely to be second at the least.

Code of Honor (7), Sleepy Eyes Todd (1) and Independence Hall (5) are horses we should respect when considering our wagers in this race, but with starting odds of 3 to 1, 3 to 1 and 5 to 2, considering I feel they have no more probability to win than either King Fury or Night Ops, I can’t endorse a win bet on any of them. Code of Honor won the Grade 2 Iselin Stakes in August at a shorter distance and although second in the Grade 1 Clark Stakes at the distance last November has a career record of 0-1-1in five tries at nine furlongs. Sleepy Eyes Todd won four of eight last year but has a record of 0-1-1 in five races this year and at nine furlongs his record of 1-2-0 in six races is okay but not dominant, particularly considering the only win and one of the second place finishes came at Charles Town, which is a unique seven furlong track so that trip is much different than it is at Keeneland. Independence Hall has a very similar record to Sleepy Eyes Todd, 0-1-2 in five races this year, none in which he threatened to win. His last win came at six and one-half furlongs and his career record at this trip is 0-1-2 in four tries.

Win Bets: King Fury (6) should be bet at odds of 5 to 2 or higher.

I would consider a win bet (for a smaller amount than on King Fury) on Night Ops at 7 to 2 or more.

Exactas:

King Fury (6) and Night Ops (4) over King Fury (6), Night Ops (4), Code of Honor (7), Sleepy Eyes Todd (1) and Independence Hall (5).

Then also I would play the reverse of that exacta, which is: King Fury (6), Night Ops (4), Code of Honor (7), Sleepy Eyes Todd (1) and Independence Hall (5) over King Fury (6) and Night Ops (4).

At the $1 minimum, the cost of both sets of exacta wagers is $16, and if King Fury and Night Ops finish first and second we win both bets.