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Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | October 9, 2021
October 7, 2021Race 8 at Keeneland | Saturday October 9 | Post Time 4:44 PM Eastern
First Lady Stakes presented by U.K. Healthcare – Grade 1 | Purse $400,000 | One Mile on Turf | Fillies and Mares, Three Years Old and Upward
Althiqa (3) is a perfect two-for-two racing in the U.S., with both wins in Grade 1 stakes like this one, the Just a Game Stakes in June and the Diana Stakes in July, and the first of the two was at this mile turf trip. The Diana Stakes has become a “Key Race” from which both the fifth and seventh finishers returned from to win stakes races as well. Trainer Charles Appleby has an amazing record with horses he races in graded stakes in the North America. According to a Race Lens query, Appleby has saddled NINE winners from 19 starters in these races over the past five years. European jockey Jamie Spencer is in to ride the filly as she prepares for the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (for which this race is an automatic qualifier) and with the best late kick in the field, evidenced by rallying from 8th two back and from 5th last out, Althiqa is definitely the one to beat.
Hendy Woods (5) ran the best race of her career last month when winning the One Dreamer Stakes at Kentucky Downs. That wasn’t a graded stakes but the 114 Equibase Figure earned is on par with the 113 Althiqa earned winning the Just a Game Stakes, though not as good as 118 figure Althiqa earned winning the Cape Verdi Stakes in June. Now with a record of five for 10 in her career, all on turf, and with jockey Tyler Gaffalione riding for the third straight time, Hendy Woods must be respected as a contender in this race.
Blowout (9) has superb early speed and has led from the start most of the time, although she has run very well when rallying from second in the final eighth of a mile as well. Blowout missed by a nose in the Grade 1 Matriarch Stakes in November and fits for exotic wagers we make at the very least, particularly as she is reunited with jockey Flavien Prat, who did not ride her when fourth against males in her most recent start but who was aboard for her win in the Distaff Turf Mile Stakes just before that, as well as her nose defeat in the Matriarch.
Princess Grace (10) goes for her fifth straight win, all in graded stakes, though none was a grade 1. She earned a 116 figure winning the Yellow Ribbon Handicap in August so appears to fit here. Her most recent win came in the Grade 3 Ladies Turf Stakes at this distance and she is reunited with jockey Kent Desormeaux, who as aboard for her Yellow Ribbon win.
Viadera (13) is the one which beat Blowout by a nose in the Matriarch Stakes last fall and she recently won the Grade 2 Ballston Spa Stakes at Saratoga so can’t be ruled out as she’s a grade 1 mile stakes winner in a grade one mile stakes. She’s won seven of 15 races in her career and certainly adds to the depth in this field.
Win bets:
Althiqa (3) should be bet to win at odds 9 to 5 or more.
We can consider win bets on the one of the other four contenders, for less than we wager on Althiqa, at odds of 7 to 2 or higher.
Exactas: