Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | September 10, 2022

Race 5 at Kentucky Downs | Saturday, September 10 | Post Time 2:45 PM Eastern

Winstar Mint Million Stakes | Purse $1 million| One Mile on Turf | Three Year Olds and Upward

Analysis and top contenders:

We’ll start with Gray’s Fable (6) in this really interesting race at a mile on the European style course at Kentucky Downs. He’s one of three horses coming out of the same race, the Evan Williams Turf Mile Stakes at Ellis Park on August 7, which serves as a prep for this race. In that race, Gray’s Fable was on the rail in traffic at the eighth pole, forced to steady, then found a seam and came to the two path to surge to the front by a neck at the wire. Jockey Michel rode the gelding beautifully and rides back and the 111 Equibase Speed Figure, which tied his previous career best from the Opening Verse Stakes in May at Churchill Downs (also at a mile) was rock solid against the others in this race. The fact he had trouble and still won is a testament to his mental toughness so opening at 8/1 he gets top billing here.

Still, Tut’s Revenge (9) and Mr Dumas (1), who finished third and second, respectively, in that photo, must be considered. If not for the fact we have a fairly evenly matched group of nine here we would not be getting potential value on these two either, who open at 8/1 and 6/1. Tut’s Revenge was returning on two weeks rest after another near miss in a stakes and fires nearly every time he runs, resulting in a career record of 11-7-8 in 38 races. Cheminaud gets on and that’s fine as this French jockey likely will find the dips and rises as well as the sweeping turns to his liking in the same way French jockey Michel (aboard Gray’s Fable) will.

Mr Dumas (1) did nothing wrong in the Evan Williams Turf mile when rallying strongly from 10^th with a quarter mile to go to miss by a neck. He won the similar Mystic Lake Mile prior to that and has never missed the board in six races this year. His 112 and 110 last two figures stack up well with the other two and it could be a tossup who wins, but with all three offering value there’s money to be won in the exacta using all three.

For some exacta tickets we should toss in Pixelate (2) who won this race last year off a third place finish and enters the race off a third place effort again but his last two figures of 102 and 100 are a bit short of what it’s going to take to win if any of the top three repeat their last efforts.  Kentucky Ghost (5) and Atone (7) are worth noting as well. Kentucky Ghost was second in the TVG Stakes at Kentucky Downs last September and won a stakes one before last but was overmatched in the Grade 1 United Nations in July. Atone was scratched out of an easier spot on Thursday to go here and missed by two noses last out in a big effort at Saratoga. Somelikeithotbrown (4) could be the early pacesetter and enters the race off a win. He finished second in the 2021 Mint Million after leading in the stretch and I think he’s going to be passed late again this year but could hang on for second once more.  

Win bets:

Gray’s Fable (6) and Tut’s Revenge (9) should both be considered for win bets at 3 to 1 or more, particularly at Gray’s Fable opens at 10/1 odds and Tut’s Revenge opens at 15/1 odds.

Mr Dumas (1) also has 3 to 1 fair odds but opens lower and we want to bet the two of the three which are the highest odds near post time so what’s why Gray’s Fable and Tut’s Revenge are listed as the potential win bets.

Exactas:

Tut’s Revenge (9), Gray’s Fable (6) and Mr Dumas (1) over ALL. At the $1 minimum level the cost of the bet if all 10 horses run is $27. This bet is secondary to win bets but could be very profitable if either Gray’s Fable or Tut’s Revenge win, no matter who finishes second, or if either of those or another long shot finishes second to Mr. Dumas.