Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | September 11, 2021

Race 9 at Kentucky Downs | Saturday September 11 | Post Time 5:44 PM Eastern

Calumet Turf Cup Stakes – Grade 2 | Purse $1 Million | One Mile and One Half on Turf | Three Year Olds and Upward

I hope you all made a lot of money on last week’s race on these pages, the Del Mar Derby, when top selection None Above the Law prevailed at $23 and the exacta to Flashiest returned $302 for a $2 bet. Another great turf race (among many) is the race for this week’s analysis, offering a full field and lots of opportunity for profit.

Main Contenders:

Tide of the Sea (4) moved from the barn of Bill Mott to Mike Maker’s care between his starts in August, 2019 and June, 2020. Since then he has won three times and finished second four other times in 11 races. The best of those in terms of his Equibase Speed Figures was last October at Keeneland when, at the distance of the Turf Cup, Tide of the Sea led from start to finish to earn a 107 figure. Two races later Tide of the Sea won the William L. McKnight Stakes in January at the 12 furlong distance of this race then three races later he led from the start and settled for second in the Grand Couturier Stakes on turf the Turf Cup distance. The key to the most successful finishes for Tide of the Sea came when he was sent to the lead from the start, resulting in all three of his wins in the last year. Jockey Luis Saez, fresh off winning the Saratoga 2021 riding title, has ridden Tide of the Sea just once previously, in the Grand Couturier, when Saez was aggressive from the opening of the gate and a race in which although Tide of the Sea was passed late, he was beaten by Gufo, who went on to win the Grade 1 Sword Dancer Stakes four weeks later. In this year’s Turf Cup, I expect Saez to be equally aggressive from the start, and with no other true “need the lead” type in the field and with only Channel Cat to get in front of at the start in order to slow down the pace and play “come catch me” with this group, Tide of the Sea can post the mild upset to win this race.

Ajourneytofreedom (8) and Glynn County (9) both appear capable of winning if Tide of the Sea can’t go all the way in front. They’re both also trained by Mike Maker, with Glynn County owned by Three Diamonds Farm, who owns Tide of the Sea.

The most recent race in which Ajourneytofreedom tried this marathon turf trip was in mid-July at Saratoga when, after relaxing in sixth (of seven) for the first mile and one-quarter, Ajourneytofreedom moved decisively from fifth, then to fourth, then to the lead, eventually winning by a neck. That effort earned a 111  Equibase figure not far from his best, a 113 figure earned when missing by a neck in the similar John B. Connally Stakes in January. With the second leading jockey in all of North America, Irad Ortiz, Jr., getting aboard Ajourneytofreedom for the first time, if the horse can stay close to Tide of the Sea and Channel Cat in the early stages, he could repeat either of those efforts in representative races to win.

Glynn County also recently won at this mile and one-half turf trip, in June, with a similar effort to the one Ajourneytofreedom put forth in July. In that race, Glynn County sat in fourth in the early stages then rallied to win by a couple of lengths with a quick burst of speed. That effort only earned a 103 figure which was exceeded two races later when the colt earned a career best 109 figure finishing third in the Mr. D Stakes (formerly the Arlington Million) at the shorter distance of a mile and one quarter. Back to the longer trip, Glynn County could be the one passing stablemate Tide of the Sea for the score.

Secondary contenders: Dynadrive (15) will need help from one or more horses withdrawing from the 12 horse main body of the field to run in the Turf Cup as he is on the also-eligible list, but he must be given some consideration if he does run. First or second in 11 of 17 races, Dynadrive joined the Maker barn last October via a $50,000 claim. His best efforts came in his last two starts when second then first, the latter of the two earning a 104 figure which can be improved upon as Jose Ortiz rides back following being in the saddle for the very first time. Although the win in August in his most recent race came at the distance of a mile and one quarter, Dynadrive is bred to handle this mile and one-half trip and is another who can lay close to the likely slow early pace and be in the picture at the wire.

Bluegrass Parkway (6) just won the Kentucky Downs Preview Turf Cup Stakes at Ellis Park, the same race Arklow used as a prep to win the Turf Cup in 2018. The effort earned Bluegrass Parkway a career best 105 figure and considering it was only the horse’s fourth start since joining the powerful Maker barn and considering jockey Julien Leparoux rides him right back there’s a chance he can run much better than his high odds will suggest is possible.

The favorites: As to the three horses which may be favored by bettors, I feel they have less chance to win then their odds make it appear and for the most part I am going to take a stand against them winning. Arklow (5), who won this race in 2018 as a four year old and last year as a six year old (with a 116 figure), does not appear to be entering this year’s Turf Cup in the same form, having finished sixth in the United Nations Stakes in July and seventh last month in the Del Mar Handicap. 2019 Turf Cup winner Zulu Alpha (11) is now an eight year old, is winless since July of 2020 and has finished third, fifth and seventh in his three starts since then. However, it must be noted that the best of the three was in last year’s Turf Cup where Zulu Alpha finished third with a 114 figure. Channel Cat (3), who won the Dueling Grounds Derby (one mile and five-sixteenths) as a three year old in 2018, has a bit more chance to win as compared to Arklow and Zulu Alpha as he won the Man O’War Stakes in May with a 113 figure. However, not only has he run poorly in two races since the Man O’War when finishing seventh and fourth, Channel Cat may not be as good as this mile and one-half distance as he is a one mile and three-eighths, with his record at this trip just 1-1-1 in seven starts.

Win bets:

I will ABSOLUTELY be betting both Tide of the Sea (4) to win at odds of 3 to 1 or more.

I will also consider win bets, for smaller amounts than on Tide of the Sea, on Ajourneytofreedom (8) and on Glynn County (9) at odds of 5 to 1 or more, perhaps even Dynadrive (15) if he draws into the race.

The reason betting two or three horses to win is acceptable in this situation is because the likely betting favorites, Arklow, Zulu Alpha and Channel Cat, have far less probability to win then their odds suggest, meaning many horses with a reasonable probability to win like those four above will be much higher odds than they should be.

Exactas: (Note – This is where we need to get creative in order to make a big score like the $302 exacta in the Del Mar Derby last week).

One option is to play Tide of the Sea (4) in both the first and second positions with the field:

Tide of the Sea (4) over ALL and then also ALL over Tide of the Sea (4). At the $1 minimum level the cost of both bets is $22 is all 12 horses run.

Another option is to key the top two contenders in first with a number of horses in second:

Tide of the Sea (4) and Ajourneytofreedom (8) over Tide of the Sea (4), Ajourneytofreedom (8), Imperador (1), Channel Cat (3), Arklow (5), Fantasioso (7), Glynn County (9), Epic Bromance (10) and Dynadrive (15). The cost of this bet at the $1 level is $16.

The bet above can be turned around as well, playing Tide of the Sea (4) and Ajourneytofreedom (8) in second. If those two happen to finish first and second, we win both bets.