Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | September 12, 2020

Race 11 at Kentucky Downs | Saturday September 12 | Post Time 6:36 PM Eastern

Runhappy Turf Sprint Stakes | Purse $700,000 | Six Furlongs on Turf | Three Year Olds and Upward

Totally Boss (4) gets top billing in this year’s Turf Sprint Stakes, not only because he won the 2019 edition of the race but because he enters the race off a big effort when beaten a head in the Shakertown Stakes at Keeneland in July. Last year he missed by a nose in a $100K classified allowance race (just like a stakes) on June 29 then won the Kentucky Downs Turf Preview Stakes at Ellis Park before winning this race and his form is similar this year coming off the narrow defeat in July at Keeneland so it appears he’s set up for a repeat, particularly with Geroux getting on and having ridden him to wins the two times he was in the saddle last year including in this race.

Imprimis (9) is another one, of MANY, who come into the race in top form. He was off for nine months before returning to win the Troy Stakes on August 8, although he was disqualified to third for interference. Although Jose Ortiz moves to Kanthaka (6), North American leading jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. takes over and rode the horse to back-to-back wins earlier in his career in turf sprints, one of those in a stakes. Likely to run as well or better second off the layoff and winner of the 2019 Shakertown Stakes at Keeneland (the race Totally Boss nearly won in July), Imprimis is another strong contender for any wager we make involving this race.

Bound for Nowhere (12) was scratched out of the Turf Sprint Stakes on Derby weekend for this spot and that makes sense given he won the Tourist Mile Stakes over this unique turf course 2018 in his only start here. In his most recent start, Bound for Nowhere battled head and head for the lead from the start and through the first half-mile in the Shakertown Stakes before opening up by a length in the stretch, only to be passed late by winner Leinster and Totally Boss. But he was not disgraced in that race as he lost just by the bob of the nose. This horse always shows up and veteran jockey Julio Garcia, who rode him in the Tourist Mile, rides him here so he’s another with a big shot to be in the exacta at the very least.

Kanthaka (6) rounds out a quartet who, in spite of the depth of this field, sticks out a bit against the other horses. Kanthaka had been away from the races from May, 2019 until June 20 of this year. He returned in the Grade 1 Jaipur and ran huge as he rallied from seven lengths back in fifth to get the lead with yards to go before coming up a neck shy to a superstar turf sprinter in Oleksandra. He’s been off over two months so the chance at regression isn’t an issue and Jose Ortiz chooses to ride him back after being up for the first time, and appears to have chosen him over Imprimis, who he just rode to victory in the Grade 3 Troy Stakes.

As I mentioned earlier, this is a very deep field, with no perhaps a lukewarm favorite at most. That means there are opportunities to play some exactas to make a nice profit even playing bigger tickets than we might ordinarily. Horses to use on those tickets include Stubbins (2), who won the Woodford Stakes at Keeneland last October, Richiesinthehouse (10), who missed by a neck in the Grade 2 Nearctic Stakes last fall. Then there are two horses on the also-eligible list I will use if they get into the race, both likely to go to post at high odds. Fast Boat (14) is one of those as he was only beaten three-quarters of a length in the Shakertown at 7 to 1 while flying from seventh to fourth at the end. The other is Admiral Lynch (16) who ran the best race of his career in July on dirt and who is trained by Mike Maker (one of three Maker has in the field), who has a sneaky good record with getting horses to run very well in stakes on grass.

Betting Strategies-

Win: Totally Boss (4) at 3 to 1 or higher.

Imprimis (9) to win at 7 to 2 or higher.

(In a race with this big a field and no heavy favorite, betting two horses to win is a good strategy. If you can, proportion your bets to win the same amount. For example if Totally Boss is 4/1 near post time a $20 win bet will yield a $100 return. If Imprimis is 6/1 near post time, a $16 win bet will yield a $102 return.)

Fair odds on the other contenders are Bound for Nowhere (12) – 4/1, Kanthaka (6) – 5/1.

Exactas:

Box Totally Boss (4), Kanthaka (6), Imprimis (9) and Bound for Nowhere (12).

(If any of those scratch consider substituting Stubbins (2) or Richiesinthehouse (10) )

Totally Boss (4), Kanthaka (6), Imprimis (9) and Bound for Nowhere (12) over Totally Boss (4), Kanthaka (6), Imprimis (9), Bound for Nowhere (12), Stubbins (2), Richiesinthehouse (10), Fast Boat (14) and Admiral Lynch (16).