Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | September 17, 2022

Race 11 at Churchill Downs | Saturday,September 17 | Post Time 5:58 PM Eastern

Pocahontas Stakes | Purse $300,000 | One Mile and One Sixteenth | Fillies, Two Years Old

Analysis and top contenders:

Grand Love (5) was visually impressive winning her debut last month at Saratoga, drawing off to win by almost five lengths in very easy fashion. Her Equibase Speed Figure of 90 was the best in the field and we can expect improvement off the experience of a race, making her the one to beat here in spite of opening at 9 to 2 odds. She’s a daughter of Gun Runner, already with seven dirt route stakes winners in his first two crops including Early Voting (Preakness), Cyberknife (Arkansas Derby and Haskell) and Echo Zulu (Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies and Fair Grounds Oaks) among other stars. The dam has produced four other runners who have combined for 17 dirt route wins in 50 starts, among them Valid ($1.1 million in earnings). With Rosario coming in from New York to ride and having been successful with 60 winners form 240 starters (25%) for Asmussen in the past year, this gal will try to lead from start to finish and could do just that.

Fun and Feisty (10) might be able to get by Grand Love in the stretch if that one can’t get an easy early lead as she showed a lot of maturity in her last two starts, the second and third of her career. First on July 23 she rallied from seventh to get to the front with an eighth of a mile to go and gamely battled to the wire, coming up just inches short of victory. Then on August 13 she rallied once more and this time drew off late to win by three lengths. That effort earned a strong 88 Equibase Speed Figure just shy of the 90 figure Grand Love earned so particularly if she can leap frog Grand Love in terms of how fast she can run she can post the slight upset, opening at 6 to 1.

Justa Warrior (11) is another horse that can stalk and close to has a shot if Grand Love can’t lead from start to finish. She’s a perfect two-for-two including a win in the Ellis Park Debutante last month with a 78 figure and she’s improved nicely from her debut to that race so has more to show us. As a daughter of undefeated Triple Crown champion Justify, there is little doubt Justa Warrior will run as well around two turns as one so she rounds out a trio which appears to be a cut above the rest of the Pocahontas Field.

Win bets:

Grand Love (5) and Fun and Feisty (10) can be considered for win bets at odds of 3 to 1 or more.

Justa Warrior (11) might be considered for a win bet if 4 to 1 or higher.

Exactas: Box Grand Love (5), Fun and Feisty (10) and Justa Warrior (11).