Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | September 18, 2021

Race 9 at Churchill Downs | Saturday September 18 | Post Time 10:11 PM Eastern

Iroquois Stakes – Grade 2 | Purse $300,000 | One Mile and One Sixteenth | Two Year Olds

Though talented, most of the 11 two year old colts entered in this year’s Iroquois Stakes, a “Win and You’re In” for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, are unproven. What may be more proven is the record of some of the trainers of entrants in this race over the years in this race, and in the Pocahontas Stakes (race 8) for two year old fillies on the card. That will be the KEY to making some bets in this race which can make us a profit, of course taking into account the horse’s themselves.

With that in mind, I’ll start with a pair which open at 10/1 odds in Lucky Boss (2) and Roger McQueen (3). Five weeks ago, Roger McQueen beat Lucky Boss by a half-length in the Ellis Park Juvenile Stakes, run at seven furlongs. It was the third career start for both colts, who had won their previous starts. Lucky Boss won his previous race one month earlier at a mile while Roger McQueen won his previous race one month earlier (on the same day) at five furlongs. Trainer Ken McPeek saddles Lucky Boss and won the 2018 Iroquois with a horse off a seven furlong previous start, as well as won the Pocahontas a few years back with a horse coming out of a race at Ellis Park. Trainer Larry Rivelli won the 2018 Iroquois and both trainers have solid records with horses stretching out to two turns. It’s very difficult to separate these two in terms of probability to win, but we really don’t have to do that because if both go to post anywhere near their 10/1 odds (and it is likely they will), we should bet both.

There’s another long shot pair to consider in Red Knobs (7), who opens at 20/1, and Strike Hard (4), opening at 10/1. Red Knobs ran poorly in his debut in July when sprinting on turf but when stretching out to a mile and moving to dirt for his next start, four weeks ago, he won easily by six lengths. The key to an odds beating effort isn’t just he has route experience the others do not because he’s trained by Dale Romans, who POINTS for these two year old stakes. Dale won the 2020 Iroquois with a horse off a maiden win at Ellis Park and he won the 2019 Iroquois with a horse off an Ellis Park win. He won the 2020 Pocahontas off an Ellis Park win and he saddled a horse to finish second in 2017. There is no reason this horse should be 20/1 to start as he is but that is logical given the depth of the field and the lower odds horses which I’ll get to shortly. Strike Hard ran the fastest of ANY HORSE in the field when earning a 93 Equibase Speed Figure in a one-turn mile race at Gulfstream last month in his second career start. Sire Flashback has only had a few crops to race but already produced a Breeders’ Cup winner when British Idiom won the Juvenile Fillies in 2019. Handled by low profile connections of trainer Matthew Williams and jockey Lionel Reyes, Strike Hard is going to be overlooked by many bettors in this race.

Stellar Tap (6) and Guntown (9) are two of those lower odds horses, opening at 3 to 1 and 9 to 2, respectively. Both are trained by Steve Asmussen and both were very impressive winning their most recent races. Still, those wins came in maiden races while Lucky Boss and Roger McQueen ran in a stakes in their most recent starts. Stellar Tap was flattered when the runner-up won his next start and Asmussen has a great record (6 for 28) with two year olds in dirt route stakes the past five years, with ONE notable exception, that being none of those wins came in either of the September stakes for two year olds. Guntown won a one mile race at Ellis Park last month, similar to Red Knobs, by a four and one-quarter length margin whereas Red Knobs won by six and one-quarter lengths. Both colts ran similarly fast, with Guntown earning a 79 Equibase speed figure compared to 75 for Red Knobs and both colts are making the third starts of their career. So I’m not saying Guntown can’t win but I am saying his 9 to 2 starting odds compared to the 20 to 1 starting odds offered on Red Knobs aren’t based on anything I can see.

The 4 to 1 second betting choice is Major General (8), who enters off a win at six and one-half furlongs at Saratoga. He won by a neck and although he’s bred to stretch out and run nicely at the trip, and that he projects to lead early, there’s no guarantee he can stretch out and run as well or better, particularly as no matter how good Todd Pletcher is, he’s 1 for 26 over the last five years with two year olds in dirt route stakes in these kinds of situations.

One more high odds horse to possibly consider is Husband Material (10), who opens at 15 to 1. He beat two other horses in a two-turn race last month in his second career start and the margin of 20 lengths is irrelevant. However, if you consider he was running against the clock and his 87 Equibase Speed Figure fits here perfectly with Stellar Tap (87), Major General (82), Guntown (79) and Bourbon Heist (10), who earned an 82 figure finishing second to Major General last month, and consider Husband Material starts at four to five times their odds, it might be a mistake to leave him off our tickets.

Win bets:

I will ABSOLUTELY be betting both Lucky Boss (2) and Roger McQueen (3) to win at odds of 4 to 1 or more. I will also consider smaller win bets (maybe $5 or $10) win bet on Red Knobs (7) and Strike Hard (4) at odds of 8 to 1 or higher.

Exactas:

Lucky Boss (2), Roger McQueen (3) and Strike Hard (4) over ALL. (At the $1 minimum level the cost of these bets is $20)

ALL over Lucky Boss (2), Roger McQueen (3) and Strike Hard (4) (This is the reverse of the first bet and will pay much better than a place bet on Lucky Boss, Roger McQueen or Strike Hard. Additionally, if any two of the three should happen to finish both first and second, we win both bets.