Keeneland Select Pick Of The Day | September 24, 2022

Race 10 at Parx | Saturday September 24 | Post Time 4:35 PM Eastern

Gallant Bob Stakes | Purse $300,000 | Six Furlongs | Three Year Olds

Analysis and top contenders:

Alottahope (12) is five for 10 in his career including having won two in a row but substantial margins. He cuts back a furlong after a three wide rally from sixth to win going away in the Hilton Memorial last month and won a stakes prior to that on July 30 by 15 lengths. He can win from just off the pace or mid-pack and his last two efforts earned 105 and 107 Equibase Figures which are the BEST figures earned by any horse in this field in their last two starts. This is known as a “double advantage” and horses with kind of edge win a very high percentage of the time, yet Alottahope opens at 10 to 1 odds. He has gone to post at 4 to 1 or less in nine of 10 races but because of this 14 horse field we may get odds to win otherwise unlikely on this superb sprinter. Although he’s zero for 1 at six furlongs I have no doubt he can get the distance because the dam produced Street Lute, who earned over $600K and won stakes at both five and one-half as well as this six furlong trip

Nakatomi (11) is the other main win contender and like Alottahope is drawn very well to avoid traffic and sit mid-pack in the early stages He won the Bowman Mill Stakes for two year olds in very fast time last October, then took eight months off, returning as if he’d never been way to beat older horses handily in late June. The 102 and 101 figures are just fine for a lightly raced horse who has probably matured since last seen so he is just about as logical to win as Alottahope, not to mention he gets Rosario, who has won at a very strong 25% clip for trainer Ward on 75 starters combined this year and last.

There are a lot of other horses who can run well but I’m going to put them in second position on exacta tickets, with two exceptions. Provocateur (3) has won two of his last four, both stakes, gets Irad Ortiz, Jr. for Pletcher and has a decent shot with a 101 last race figure which if repeated makes him competitive. On the other hand he opens at 4 to 1 odds which are lower than 9/2 for Nakatomi or 10/1 for Alottahope so he doesn’t offer the same value for win bets as either of those two. Also, Lightening Larry (10) can be considered if for no other reason than a very strong 4-4-0 record in 10 starts and a win in the similar Chick Lang Stakes at the distance on Preakness Day with a 104 figure.

Win bets:

We should consider Alottahope (12) and Nakatomi (11) at odds of 5 to 2 or higher.

Exactas: Box Provocateur (3), Lightening Larry (10), Nakatomi (11) and Alottahope (12).

Nakatomi (11) and Alottahope (12) over Of a Revolution (2), Provocateur (3), Witty (8), Lightening Larry (10), Nakatomi (11), Alottahope (12) and Scaramouche (14).