Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | September 25, 2021

Race 10 at Churchill Downs | Saturday September 25 | Post Time 5:26 PM Eastern

Harrods Creek Stakes | Purse $275,000 | Seven Furlongs | Three Year Olds

I can’t separate Bob’s Edge (3) and Shadow Matter (6) and luckily I probably won’t have to as they both open at 8 to 1 in this very nice stakes for three year olds going seven furlongs. Bob’s Edge tried turf for the first time in his most recent start, on July 4, and that race can be ignored as it only proved he doesn’t like the grass. He won a highly rated allowance race here at Churchill Downs prior to that, coming from third to win drawing away, which was the same way he won an allowance race two tries before that in March. He also broke his maiden at Churchill Downs last November so he’s a perfect two-for-two over the track. Adam Beschizza was aboard for the most recent win and sticks with him, which is a good sign, as is the 101 Equibase Speed Figure (a number enabling us to compare time from horses coming in from various tracks), which is one of the top dirt speed figures in the field. Considering I believe Bob’s Edge (3) is going to return to the form shown on dirt before the turf race, and that form is good enough to win in this field, he has to be given status as a top contender to win this race.

Likewise, Shadow Matter (6) won a six furlong allowance race at Churchill Downs in May, just one day before Bob’s Edge earned his win. In that race, Shadow Matter relaxed off the pace in second before drawing off late with a 101 figure comparable to the figure Bob’s Edge earned winning the same week. In his only start since then, Shadow Matter ran in a $75K stakes race at Colonial and with a different jockey he did not relax off the pacesetter early but rather battled head and head for the lead for the first six furlongs, before logically tiring to fourth. The winner of that race came back to win his second stakes race in a row so it wasn’t a bad effort on the part of Shadow Matter at all. Since returning to Churchill, he put in a sharp half-mile workout to show he’s in good shape and similar to Bob’s Edge, if Shadow Matter returns to the form shown just one race before last, and over this dirt strip, he can win.

There are NO huge knocks on any of the other nine, with most entering this race off big efforts. Even Flags Up (9), who opens at 20/1, must be considered as he comes back on eight days rest since rallying home from eighth of nine early to miss winning by a head at six and one-half furlongs in a highly rated allowance race. As such, I wouldn’t talk anyone off making a bet on any of the rest, but you must demand odds worth the risk, so for example although Irish Unity (7) enters the race off a good second in the St. Louis Derby last month his 3/1 odds (likely to go lower) make him a poor win bet as he’s not a standout in this group.

Win bets:

I will absolutely bet on BOTH Bob’s Edge (3) and Shadow Matter (6) to win at odds of 5 to 2 or more.

Exactas:

Bob’s Edge (3) and Shadow Matter (6) over ALL.

Optionally play the opposite of that exacta which is ALL over Bob’s Edge (3) and Shadow Matter (6). In this case we’re hoping a high odds horse wins, and if our two contenders finish first and second, we win both bets.