Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | September 26, 2020

Race 9 at Churchill Downs | Saturday September 26 | Post Time 4:53 PM Eastern

Ack Ack Stakes – Grade 3 | Purse $100,000 | One Mile | Three Year Olds and Upward

Thirstforlife (10) has a zero for six record in 2020 which makes it very likely he will go to post at high odds in this race, just as he has done in his last six races with odds ranging from 9 to 1 to as high as 47 to 1. However, there is reason to believe he can outrun those odds and even if not winning can help us make a strong profit in this race. Thirstforlife ran second in the 2019 Ack Ack Stakes, at five to one odds and that wasn’t his only “A” race at Churchill Downs. Outside of Louisville, Thirstforlife has a record of 3-3-2 in 19 races but at Churchill Downs his record is 4-3-2 in 14 races and that is where some of his career-best efforts have come. Before his runner-up effort in this race last year, which by the way earned a 113 Equibase Speed Figure which is the best winning figure by any horse in this field, Thirstforlife had won at this mile trip in May with a 112 figure effort. There’s no doubt he went off form after that, finishing no better than fifth and as far back as 12^th in his next five races. However, Thirstforlife woke up when at Churchill Downs on June 28 when missing by a neck. His most recent effort on September 2, is the real reason I think he can outrun high odds as he was blocked while wanting to run on at a critical stage of the race and in spite of having no chance to win, when there was room late in the stretch, Thirstforlife showed he was very willing and even galloped out in second. With a jockey change, a bit of racing luck, and running over a track he truly runs his best over, Thirstforlife is worth taking a shot with at high odds in this field.

Ebben (8) is the horse to beat on paper, having won that September 2 race over the track in which Thirstforlife finished third. Ebben has now won three in a row, all under Lanerie, who rides again. Two of those came over this track. In that most recent effort, which earned a field high 110 last race Equibase Figure, Ebben stalked in second and drew off easily. There are no signs of declining form and with it being likely he can stalk early pacesetters Warrior’s Charge (1) and American Anthem (4), Ebben has every right to win for the fourth time in a row.

There are number of horses to use underneath the top two on exacta tickets, including the previously mentioned likely pacesetters Warrior’s Charge and American Anthem, both who have finished second in stakes this year. Bourbon Calling (2) won a stakes at seven furlongs last month at Charles Town and has performed well at Churchill Downs so is another who could get a piece, as could Alkhaatam (7), who runs brilliantly on occasion but poorly much of the time. Bankit (9) put together two big runner-up efforts in stakes early this year but has only managed third and fourth place finishes in three recent stakes. Still, his best is good for a piece. Everfast (13) is the last of six horses I will consider for second on some exacta tickets, most notably because he ran on for second in the similar Blame Stakes in May over the track.

Betting Strategies-

Win: Bet BOTH Thirstforlife (10) and Ebben (8) to win at odds of 3 to 1 or more.

“If” Ebben is less than three to win, then we could play an exacta of Ebben over ALL as a substitute.

Additionally, since it’s likely Thirstforlife will go to post at high odds, instead of a place bet we can play an exacta of ALL over Thirstforlife in the event he finishes second, which will result in a nice profit.

Exactas: Ebben (8) and Thirstforlife (10) over Warrior’s Charge (1), Bourbon Calling (2), American Anthem (4) Alkhaatam (7), Ebben (8), Bankit (9), Thirstforlife (10) and Everfast (13).

Trifectas:

Ebben (8) and Thirstforlife (10) over ALL over Ebben (8) and Thirstforlife (10). (This covers the possibility of the two main contenders finishing first and third).