Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | September 4, 2021

Race 11 at Del Mar | Saturday September 4 | Post Time 9:30 PM Eastern

Del Mar Derby – Grade 2 | Purse $250,000 | One Mile and One Eighth on Turf | Three Year Olds   

The separation between so many good horses which can win this year’s Del Mar Derby is paper thin, but I’m going to start with None Above the Law (4). After winning just two of his first seven races, None Above the Law was sent from Santa Anita to Golden Gate to contest the Silky Sullivan Stakes in April, scheduled for turf but run on the all-weather main track due to inclement weather. That was his best race to date, as None Above the Law rallied from ninth to win going away. Staying around at Golden Gate, one month later in the Alcatraz Stakes, this time remaining on the grass as scheduled, None Above the Law won easily again, this time in a field of 10. Returning to Southern California and stretching out to the same nine furlong turf trip as the Del Mar Derby, None Above the Law rallied to miss by a neck behind Jimmy Blue Jeans. Next came a rare poor effort in the Oceanside when ninth, but when shortened up to seven furlongs at the end of July, None Above the Law returned to top form, blowing away the field to win by five lengths with a career-best, and better still, field high, last race 103 Equibase Speed Figure. Looking back at his previous races, when stretching out from a sprint to a route in January, None Above the Law led late and ended up second in the California Cup Derby, then when doing the same in April he won the Silky Sullivan. As such, I expect None Above the Law to run a big race and likely at high odds as he will be overlooked by many bettors. Although leading jockey Flavien Prat gets off to ride Hudson Ridge, I have no concerns, and actually am pretty excited by the presence of Joe Bravo, who came to ride at Del Mar since the start of the meet and who has been very impressive, winning 21 of 98 races at the meet through last weekend and with a record on turf rivaling that of top turf jockeys Flavien Prat and Umberto Rispoli.

Zoffarelli (9) was placed first in the La Jolla Stakes following the disqualification of Sword Zorro (IRE) but in my opinion he would have won that race with a clean trip. Making his U.S. debut in the La Jolla, Zoffarelli lacked room at a critical stage of the stretch run then was bumped hard by Sword Zorro, who was inside, and into Hudson Ridge, who was outside. The 97 figure he earned is highly likely to be improved upon in the horse’s second U.S. start which gives Zoffarelli a chance to win his second graded stakes in as many tries since importing from Europe.

No Foolery Here (5) finished third in the opening day Oceanside Stakes, and ran as well as winner Flashiest and runner-up Crew Dragon when beaten a head and a nose for the win. One race before that, No Foolery Here won at the nine furlong turf distance of the Derby, then in the Oceanside he was flying late from eighth at the top of the stretch to come up inches short on the wire, earning a strong 101 figure in the process. The Oceanside turned out to be a “Key Race” which continues to be very productive. Oceanside runner-up Crew Dragon won his next race, and Hockey Dad (who was beaten a head, nose and neck) returned to nearly win his next start. None Above the Law improved off his ninth place effort to win a stakes, and the seventh place finisher won a stakes race at Golden Gate in his next start. As one of the few horses which has not run since the Oceanside, it follows that No Foolery Here should improve markedly and as such he could be a big factor in the Del Mar Derby, potentially at high odds as he was 39 to 1 in the Oceanside.

Certainly, Sword Zorro (13) and Hudson Ridge (1) must be given some respect based on their efforts in the La Jolla, a race in which they earned 98 and 97 figures, respectively. However it must be noted Sword Zorro gets a poor outside post in a big field and could lose ground on both turns. Similarly, Crew Dragon (12) and Flashiest (14), the second and first place finishers in the Oceanside Stakes, respectively, fit in the Del Mar Derby perfectly, but could be disadvantaged by poor outside posts.

Win bets:

I would bet two, or even three of the top contenders to win given there is going to be no heavy favorite and the odds on most horse will be worth the risk. I would definitely consider the two (of these three) going to post at the highest odds. 

None Above the Law (4), Zoffarelli (9) and/or No Foolery Here (5) at odds of 3 to 1 or higher.

Exactas:

Certainly in a 14 horse field and with no heavy favorite there’s an opportunity to box four or five horses and still come away with a nice profit. However, my preference is to key three horses over the other main contenders, then play the reverse of that exacta so if any two of the three finish first and second we win the bet twice.

None Above the Law (4), Zoffarelli (9) and No Foolery Here (5) over None Above the Law (4), Zoffarelli (9), No Foolery Here (5), Hudson Ridge (1), Hockey Dad (3), Crew Dragon (12) Sword Zorro (13) and Flashiest (14)

None Above the Law (4), Zoffarelli (9), No Foolery Here (5), Hudson Ridge (1), Hockey Dad (3), Crew Dragon (12) Sword Zorro (13) and Flashiest (14) over None Above the Law (4), Zoffarelli (9) and No Foolery Here (5)