Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | September 5, 2020

Race 11 at Churchill Downs | Saturday September 5 | Post Time 4:39 PM Eastern

Churchill Downs Distaff Turf Mile | Purse $500,000 | One Mile on Turf | Fillies and Mares, Four Year Olds and Upward

No matter that the 4 to 5 starting odds on Newspaperofrecord (4) suggest she’s a standout, she’s not although she is one of three with a strong probability to win. The morning line odds are an estimate of what the final odds will be, a guideline for the public, and although whoever makes the morning line odds uses the same tools handicappers do, and they are right more than they are wrong, that doesn’t mean there are errors in judgement by the public in assessing how much chance a horse actually has to win. That being said, I think if you ran this race 100 times, each of the three horses above would win about 28 times, and that’s why La Signare (7) is the preferred wager (to win) of the three.

La Signare (7) opens at 10/1 odds, but her best races are every bit as good as those of Newspaperofrecord. La Signare won the Sand Springs Stakes in March at this mile turf trip, earning a 100 Equibase Figure. She had won the Wonder Again Stakes as a three year old in 2018 and took some time to get back to that form but she did just that, THEN she held that form when second, beaten a neck, in the Mint Julep Stakes here at Churchill Downs in May. In that race she was in pretty bad traffic in the stretch and might have won without those issues. Then, in the Jenny Wiley Stakes last month, La Signare found herself in a different predicament as the early pace was hot and a lot of horses were accelerating turning from home, forcing her to go seven paths wide into the stretch and losing ground she could ill-afford to lose. Nevertheless, La Signare earned a 110 figure for the effort. Back at Churchill Downs where she nearly won the Mint Julep, and with a decent amount of early pace to set up her late kick, if La Signare can find a clear path to run in the late stages she can post the upset.

Newspaperofrecord (4) has won five of eight races, finishing second twice. She’s two for two this year after coming back from 11 months off. The first of those two was the faster, the Intercontinental Stakes, in which she earned a 110 figure. That was a career-best, but as mentioned previously that 110 figure is the same one La Signare earned twice this year. Winning the Grade 1 Just a Game takes three weeks later in June, Newspaperofrecord controlled the pace from start to finish as she had done in every one of her last four wins. In this race, Harmless and Belle Laura both may try to garner the lead from the start and if that happens one of three outcomes will occur – either Newspaperofrecord can take back off the pace and still win (which she hasn’t proven capable of previously), Newspaperofrecord will assert herself to get the lead and have enough class to hold off La Signare and Juliet Foxtrot, or Newspaperofrecord will have expended too much energy to hold off those closers.

Juliet Foxtrot (3) finished third in the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley Stakes last month and three lengths ahead of La Signare. That effort tied her career-best 116 Equibase Figure earned two other times previously. Prior to that, she finished behind La Signare when sixth in the Mint Julep which followed nearly seven months away. As she did improve second off the layoff, and as she too could benefit from a faster than average or contested early pace scenario, Juliet Foxtrot, who had also finished second in the Grade 1 First Lady Stakes last fall (to Uni, who then won the Breeders’ Cup Mile versus males), has a big shot to contend for top honors in this race.

Betting Strategies-

Win: La Signare (7) to win at odds of 5/2 or higher.

Consider a second win bet, on Juliet Foxtrot (3) at 3/1 or more.

Exactas:

Box Juliet Foxtrot (3), Newspaperofrecord (4) and La Signare (7)

Trifectas:

Box Juliet Foxtrot (3), Newspaperofrecord (4) and La Signare (7)

Juliet Foxtrot (3), Newspaperofrecord (4) and La Signare (7) over Box Juliet Foxtrot (3), Newspaperofrecord (4) and La Signare (7) over ALL.