Keeneland Select Picks of the Day | April 30, 2022

Race 8 at Churchill Downs | Saturday April 30 | Post Time 9:39 PM Eastern

Five and One-Half Furlongs on Turf | Fillies and Mares, Three Years Old and Upward

AND

Race 9 at Churchill Downs | Saturday April 30 | Post Time 10:11 PM Eastern

Roxelana Stakes 3 | Purse $160,000 | Six Furlongs |Fillies and Mares, Four Year Olds and Upward

Race 8:

Sterling Miss (6) gets slight preference in a very deep race with a 12 horse field. She doesn’t show any turf races in her last 12 starts but has run very well on turf, particularly when winning a similar short turf sprint in the summer of 2020 with a field high 104 Equibase Speed Figure. She’s won 11 of 37 races for over $400K in earnings and her last win came three races back at this five and one-half furlong distance on dirt in a race scheduled for the grass. She fits on all counts for a big effort.

Mamba Wamba (2) was very impressive in her U.S. debut last December in Florida when sweeping past the field from ninth to first in the late stages. She didn’t run as well in a stakes race then when moved to this second allowance level earlier this month at Keeneland she rallied from eighth to third. She’s moving forward again and could be the one closing fastest of all to win.

Richies Great Girl (12) opens at odds of 12/1 which are too high to ignore for a mare who has won seven of 17 races, including three on turf and at similar sprint distances. She returns from a short two month rest and won off a layoff last July so that’s not an issue. With 11 first or second place finishes in her career and having been in-the-money in six of her last seven, she must be respected as a contender.

Clara Peeters (4) has never run this short a distance on turf but has a pretty good record of 10 for 21 first or second in turf routes. She finished third in a stakes last month and on the cut back in distance she could be closing nicely. She’s one of a few which have already won at this allowance level so she’s in for the optional $62,500 claiming price.

Bay Storm (10) finished second under identical conditions at Keeneland on April 8, following six months off. She’s competitive with a 2-2-1 record in six races but there’s nothing about her which stands out so her 9 to 5 starting odds are too low for considering her for a win bet, but we should use her on exacta and double tickets.

Win bets:

I would consider betting Sterling Miss (6) and Mamba Wamba (2) at odds of 3 to 1 or more.

I would ABSOLUTELY consider a bet on Richies Great Girl (12) at odds of 4 to 1 or higher.

Exactas:

Sterling Miss (6), Mamba Wamba (2) and Richies Great Girl (12) over Sterling Miss (6), Mamba Wamba (2), Richies Great Girl (12), Clara Peeters (4) and Bay Storm (10).

Sterling Miss (6), Mamba Wamba (2), Richies Great Girl (12), Clara Peeters (4) and Bay Storm (10) over Sterling Miss (6), Mamba Wamba (2) and Richies Great Girl (12).

Doubles:

Race 8: Sterling Miss (6), Mamba Wamba (2), Richies Great Girl (12), Clara Peeters (4) and Bay Storm (10)

Race 9: Bayerness (3)

Race 9:

Bayerness (3) returns from a layoff since last August and if ready to run as it appears she is by a strong half0mile workout last week, she should win. She won off a September, 2020 to April, 2021 layoff nearly identical to this one, at Churchill Downs with Luis Saez riding as today, and she then finished third, second and first in stakes races, the best of which earned a 107 Equibase figure which towers over the other four runners in the race.

Win bets:

Bayerness (3) can be bet to win at odds of 3 to 2 or higher, but hopefully if we are alive to doubles from the eighth race we may not need to bet her to win.