Keeneland Select Picks of the Day | August 13, 2022

Race 10 at Churchill Downs | Saturday August 13 | Post Time 5:51 PM Eastern

Fort Larned Stakes | Purse $200,000| One Mile and Three-Sixteenths | Three Year Olds and Upward

Analysis and top contenders:

Intrepid Heart (6) suffered a very tough defeat when last seen, on June 23 here at Churchill Downs. It was a stakes quality allowance race and he had relaxed in fourth until the stretch when he surged forward to second, coming up a nose short on the wire. That was his third straight runner-up finish and in three of those efforts he earned extremely strong 110, 111 and 106 Equibase Speed Figures, the two highest which are better than ANY other horse in this field, ever. With Gaffalione riding back this tough six year old with 13 first or second place finishes in 25 races is the one to beat.

Twilight Blue (5) and Mr. Wireless (3) are the other two which should run well and can be used in exactas with Intrepid Heart, as well as doubles to race 11, the Arlington Million. Twilight Blue has won twice and finished second twice in his last four, including by next out stakes winner Fulsome, and he’s never been worse than second in four starts over the track. Mr. Wireless just ran the best race of his career winning a non-grade stakes at Horseshoe Indiana, which came second off a race he had to need following nine months off. He should run as well in this situation third off the layoff.

Win bets: Intrepid Heart (6) to win at 2 to 1 or more.

Exactas:

Box Intrepid Heart (6) and Twilight Blue (5).

Box Intrepid Heart (6) and Mr. Wireless (3).

Doubles:
Race 10: Mr. Wireless (3), Twilight Blue (5), Intrepid Heart (6)

Race 11: Set Piece (1), Santin (6)

Race 11 at Churchill Downs | Saturday August 13 | Post Time 6:25 PM Eastern

Arlington Million Stakes – Grade 1 | Purse $1 Million| One Mile and One-Eighth on Turf | Three Year Olds and Upward

Analysis and top contenders:

Santin (6) is one of only two four year olds in this year’s Arlington Million Stakes (the other being Cellist) and he has only run badly in one of seven career starts. That was when sixth in his most recent start which came in June in the Manhattan Stakes, possibly because one of his shoes had to be repaired in the paddock just before the race. That poor effort might also have been due to the 10 furlong distance of the race he was running for the first time, or the fact he was racing at Belmont for the first time. Prior to that Santin ran the best race of his career, at the nine furlong distance of the Arlington Million and at Churchill Downs. That effort came in the Turf Classic Stakes in May, where the colt earned a career best 115 Equibase Speed Figure. In that race Santin battled head-and-head for the entire last three-sixteenths of a mile. That was his first start in blinkers and it really seems to have made a difference. Jockey Tyler Gaffalione was aboard that day and rides back and since shipping from New York back to Churchill Downs Santin put in a very sharp three furlong blowout in the morning to put him on edge for a repeat of his Turf Classic effort in the Arlington Million.

Set Piece (1) also should bounce back to his best form shipping in from New York to race at Churchill Downs, where he has won four of five on this turf course. The best of those efforts came 14 months ago when rallying from last of 10 to win the Wise Dan Stakes in visually impressive fashion and with a strong 112 Equibase figure. After taking seven months off from September of last year until this April, Set Piece got back into the winner’s circle in his second start on the comeback trail, rallying from next to last to win the Dinner Party Stakes in May. Next, in the Forbidden Apple Stakes last month, Set Piece moved up from 11^th to within just about one length of the leaders when he found himself behind a wall of horses, getting a path to run much too late to have an impact and finishing fifth. Before shipping from New York, Set Piece put in a fantastic morning drill when running four furlongs in 47.8 seconds, the best of fifty-nine workouts at the distance on the day. As such, it is very reasonable to expect Set Piece to return to form good enough to win this race.

Regarding one of the likely betting favorites, Smooth Like Strait (4), there’s little doubt he fires nearly every time, having finished first or second in 15 of 20 career starts on grass. He missed by a half-length in the Breeders’ Cup Mile last fall, earning a career-best 119 figure. He also finished third in the Maker’s Mark Mile this past spring and other than that has been first or second in his last six races, all grade one or grade two stakes. Still, he does his best running at a mile, not this mile and one-eighth trip. The last two times he ran the distance Smooth Like Strait led with an eighth of a mile to go and although game to the wire was beaten by a neck on the finish line in both of those races. We can also use Field Pass (3) on exacta tickets as he has been second or third, beaten by inches, in his two most recent races versus similar.

Win bets: Santin (6) at 2 to 1 or higher.

Set Piece (1) at 5 to 1 or higher.  

Exactas: Set Piece (1) and Santin (6) over Set Piece (1), Field Pass (3), Smooth Like Strait (4) and Santin (6).

Trifecta: Set Piece (1) and Santin (6) over Set Piece (1), Field Pass (3), Smooth Like Strait (4) and Santin (6) over Set Piece (1), Field Pass (3), Smooth Like Strait (4) and Santin (6)