Monmouth Hot List - July 18

New York Hot List Monmouth Park picks

Saturday, July 18, 2020

By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman

The $150,000 Matchmaker (G3), Monmouth Park – race 9 -- (5) Beautiful Lover has faced Grade 1 and 2 competition in her last two starts for Chad Brown and ran well. She won the Boiling Springs at Monmouth last year and has excellent turf rider Joe Bravo in the saddle. (2) Feel Glorious was third in the New York (G2) at Belmont Park in her 2020 debut for Christophe Clement against a very strong field and should benefit from that effort. (4) Varenka made her first start of the year in the Mint Julep (G3) at Churchill Downs for Graham Motion. She was Grade 2 winner at Saratoga last summer. (6) Nay Lady Nay also debuted in the Mint Julep. This Brown runner broke her maiden at Monmouth last summer and has a Grade 2 victory. Paco Lopez won both times that he rode this filly.  Betting strategy: Exacta key box: 5 with 2, 4, 6. Trifecta box: 2, 4, 5, 6.

The $300,000 Monmouth Cup (G3), Monmouth Park – race 10 – (9) Bal Harbour has moved from the Todd Pletcher barn to that of Monmouth based trainer Gregg Sacco. Last year he was second in this race and the Iselin (G3) at Monmouth along with the Woodward (G1). Then, he faced top horses like Maximum Security and Tom’s d’Etat. He will make his 2020 debut in here and has run well fresh in the past. (8) Just Whistle ran a solid fourth in the Suburban (G2) behind Tacitus last time out and was a close second in the Hal’s Hope (G3) at Gulfstream Park. (3) Senior Investment had a three-race winning streak heading into the Suburban but caught a muddy track which is not to his liking. Since then, he has been training very fast at Parx with two bullet works. (10) Bodexpress hit the board in a number of graded stakes and has lots of speed to get good position from his outside post position. Betting strategy: Exacta key box: 9 with 3, 8, 10. Trifecta box: 3, 8, 9, 10.

The $300,000 United Nations (G1), Monmouth Park – race 11 -- (2) Standard Deviation has a perfect record at Monmouth Park with two stakes victories last summer. He will make his second start after a layoff which seems to something that the Graham Motion runner prefers. (1) Arklow returns on just six days rest for Brad Cox. The 6-year-old was a Grade 1 winner last fall in the Turf Classic at Belmont. He has consistently faced the very best turf horses and now actually gets some class relief. (9) Paret made a winning 2020 debut in the Tiller at Belmont last month with a front running effort. (3) Muggsamatic was one of the rare examples of a horse that won in his first start after leaving the barn of indicted trainer Jason Servis. He did that at Gulfstream for Michael Maker. He has three career wins at Monmouth. Betting strategy:  2 to Win, Place, Show. Exacta key box: 2 with 1, 3, 9. Trifecta box: 1, 2, 3, 9.

The $1,000,000 Haskell Stakes (G1), Monmouth Park – race 12 -- (1) Dr Post has made significant improvement in his last two starts with a stakes win at Gulfstream Park and a second in the Belmont Stakes (G1) behind the division leading Tiz the Law. Trainer Todd Pletcher is seeking his fourth win in the Haskell. Dr Post should get plenty of pace to set-up his late closing move. (2) Authentic tasted defeat for the first time in four starts in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) after losing to Honor A. P. He will make the initial start of his career outside of California. Authentic was listed at 4-5 odds on the morning line. Trainer Bob Baffert will be trying to win this race for the ninth time. Breaking from the rail, the son of Into Mischief is likely to try and get the jump on the other pace pressers in the field of seven. (7) Ny Traffic has two seconds and a third on the Kentucky Derby trail. Most recently, he had the lead in the stretch of the Matt Winn (G3) at Churchill Downs but was chased down late by the talented Maxfield. He retains the services of aggressive rider Paco Lopez. He will have to contend with Authentic in the early part of the race. (6) Lebda has four career wins which is more than any other horse in the field. He has two wins in listed stakes at Laurel Park where he is stabled. He appears to be a notch below the top two but is quite capable of finishing in the trifecta. Betting strategy: 1 to win. Exactas: 1 with 2, 6, 7. Trifecta part-wheel: 1 with 2, 6, 7 with ALL.